Statistics / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Benfica vs SC Braga

Benfica vs SC Braga Statistics & Analysis

Benfica Benfica
May 11, 2026 - 19:15
2 1.93
2 0.90
xG Accuracy: 72%
SC Braga SC Braga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Benfica Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Benfica vs SC Braga
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 60.2% · Draw 24.2% · Away 15.6%
  • xG (showing): Benfica 1.93 — SC Braga 0.9 (total xG ≈ 2.83)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 46.2% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +3.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.1% · No 47.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (11.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: Under 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 33 27 4 2 85
2 Benfica 32 22 10 0 76
3 Sporting CP 32 23 7 2 76
4 SC Braga 32 16 9 7 57
5 Famalicao 32 14 10 8 52
6 GIL Vicente 32 13 11 8 50
7 Moreirense 32 12 6 14 42
8 Guimaraes 32 12 6 14 42
9 Estoril 33 10 9 14 39
10 Alverca 33 10 9 14 39
11 Arouca 32 10 6 16 36
12 Rio Ave 32 8 11 13 35
13 Santa Clara 32 8 9 15 33
14 Nacional 32 8 7 17 31
15 Estrela 32 6 10 16 28
16 Casa Pia 32 5 11 16 26
17 Tondela 32 5 10 17 25
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting CP 32 82 23 +59 76
2 Benfica 32 69 22 +47 76
3 FC Porto 33 65 18 +47 85
4 SC Braga 32 60 32 +28 57
5 Estoril 33 53 54 -1 39
6 GIL Vicente 32 46 32 +14 50
7 Famalicao 32 41 29 +12 52
8 Arouca 32 41 62 -21 36
9 Guimaraes 32 39 48 -9 42
10 Moreirense 32 37 47 -10 42
11 Estrela 32 36 54 -18 28
12 Nacional 32 35 43 -8 31
13 Alverca 33 35 51 -16 39
14 Rio Ave 32 33 52 -19 35
15 Santa Clara 32 30 40 -10 33
16 Casa Pia 32 29 56 -27 26
17 AVS 33 27 67 -40 20
18 Tondela 32 24 52 -28 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Sporting CP 32 67.3 23.2 +44.1 76
2 FC Porto 33 61.3 22.1 +39.2 85
3 Benfica 32 64.2 25.7 +38.5 76
4 SC Braga 32 54.9 36.8 +18.1 57
5 Famalicao 32 45.0 33.2 +11.8 52
6 GIL Vicente 32 44.2 35.1 +9.1 50
7 Santa Clara 32 35.9 34.4 +1.5 33
8 Alverca 33 39.1 38.6 +0.5 39
9 Guimaraes 32 37.9 44.5 -6.6 42
10 Estoril 33 41.2 51.0 -9.8 39
11 Estrela 32 39.3 50.3 -11.0 28
12 Tondela 32 36.1 47.1 -11.0 25
13 Nacional 32 36.9 49.2 -12.3 31
14 Rio Ave 32 33.6 50.0 -16.4 35
15 Moreirense 32 30.4 49.6 -19.2 42
16 Arouca 32 29.2 48.9 -19.7 36
17 Casa Pia 32 29.3 54.1 -24.8 26
18 AVS 33 29.9 61.7 -31.8 20
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