Statistics / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Alverca vs Estoril

Alverca vs Estoril Statistics & Analysis

Alverca Alverca
May 10, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.59
1 0.81
xG Accuracy: 81%
Estoril Estoril
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alverca Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Alverca vs Estoril
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.3% · Draw 28.2% · Away 17.5%
  • xG (showing): Alverca 1.59 — Estoril 0.81 (total xG ≈ 2.4)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 38.8% · Probability edge: +15.6 pts · Est. EV: +38.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.7% · No 54.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 88
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 82
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 80
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 59
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 56
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 50
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 43
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 42
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 42
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 39
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 39
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 36
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 36
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 34
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 30
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 30
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 28
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting CP 34 89 24 +65 82
2 Benfica 34 74 25 +49 80
3 FC Porto 34 66 18 +48 88
4 SC Braga 34 64 36 +28 59
5 Estoril 34 54 57 -3 39
6 GIL Vicente 34 47 38 +9 50
7 Arouca 34 47 64 -17 42
8 Famalicao 34 42 29 +13 56
9 Guimaraes 34 39 51 -12 42
10 Estrela 34 38 56 -18 30
11 Nacional 34 37 45 -8 34
12 Moreirense 34 37 49 -12 43
13 Alverca 34 35 52 -17 39
14 Rio Ave 34 35 57 -22 36
15 Santa Clara 34 32 41 -9 36
16 Casa Pia 34 31 57 -26 30
17 Tondela 34 27 55 -28 28
18 AVS 34 27 67 -40 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Sporting CP 34 67.3 23.2 +44.1 82
2 FC Porto 34 61.3 22.1 +39.2 88
3 Benfica 34 64.2 25.7 +38.5 80
4 SC Braga 34 54.9 36.8 +18.1 59
5 Famalicao 34 45.0 33.2 +11.8 56
6 GIL Vicente 34 44.2 35.1 +9.1 50
7 Santa Clara 34 35.9 34.4 +1.5 36
8 Alverca 34 39.1 38.6 +0.5 39
9 Guimaraes 34 37.9 44.5 -6.6 42
10 Estoril 34 41.2 51.0 -9.8 39
11 Estrela 34 39.3 50.3 -11.0 30
12 Tondela 34 36.1 47.1 -11.0 28
13 Nacional 34 36.9 49.2 -12.3 34
14 Rio Ave 34 33.6 50.0 -16.4 36
15 Moreirense 34 30.4 49.6 -19.2 43
16 Arouca 34 29.2 48.9 -19.7 42
17 Casa Pia 34 29.3 54.1 -24.8 30
18 AVS 34 29.9 61.7 -31.8 21
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