NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: HNL
• Fixture: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split
• Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 20.7% · Draw 24.9% · Away 54.4%
• xG (showing): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.12 — HNK Hajduk Split 1.91 (total xG ≈ 3.03)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
• Model: 58.4% · Implied: 54.6% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +3.4%
• BTTS (model): Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: Over 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 18, 2026 (UTC)