Pietralunga vs Maceratese Statistics & Analysis

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Pietralunga

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.38

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 55%

Maceratese

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Pietralunga Maceratese ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8676082

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Maceratese win · Pietralunga 0–2 Maceratese

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie D Girone F
Fixture: Pietralunga vs Maceratese
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Pietralunga 1.38 — Maceratese 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie D Girone F — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Vigor Senigallia	4	4	0	0	12
2	Teramo	4	3	1	0	10
3	Città di Foligno	4	3	0	1	9
4	L'Aquila	4	2	2	0	8
5	Ancona	4	2	1	1	7
6	Santegidiese	4	2	1	1	7
7	Atletico Ascoli	4	2	1	1	7
8	Montecchio Gallo	4	2	1	1	7
9	Recanatese	4	1	3	0	6
10	Fossombrone	4	2	0	2	6
11	Lanciano FC	4	1	1	2	4
12	San Nicolò	4	1	1	2	4
13	Termoli Calcio	4	1	1	2	4
14	Maceratese	4	1	0	3	3
15	Angelana	4	1	0	3	3
16	Real Giulianova	4	0	1	3	1
17	Pietralunga	4	0	1	3	1
18	Sporting Trestina	4	0	1	3	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Teramo	4	11	5	+6	10
2	Vigor Senigallia	4	10	4	+6	12
3	L'Aquila	4	7	2	+5	8
4	Lanciano FC	4	6	6	0	4
5	Recanatese	4	5	2	+3	6
6	Ancona	4	5	4	+1	7
7	Città di Foligno	4	5	5	0	9
8	Fossombrone	4	5	9	-4	6
9	Santegidiese	4	4	3	+1	7
10	Atletico Ascoli	4	4	3	+1	7
11	Montecchio Gallo	4	4	3	+1	7
12	San Nicolò	4	4	5	-1	4
13	Maceratese	4	3	6	-3	3
14	Angelana	4	3	6	-3	3
15	Real Giulianova	4	3	6	-3	1
16	Termoli Calcio	4	2	3	-1	4
17	Sporting Trestina	4	2	7	-5	1
18	Pietralunga	4	1	5	-4	1