Bari vs Casarano Statistics & Analysis

Bari

Sep 05, 2026 - 19:00

1 1.27

0 1.33

xG Accuracy: 64%

Casarano

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Casarano Bari ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6168700

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bari win · Bari 1–0 Casarano

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie C - Girone C
Fixture: Bari vs Casarano
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Bari 1.27 — Casarano 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie C - Girone C — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Sorrento	6	5	0	1	15
2	Potenza	6	4	1	1	13
3	Bari	6	4	1	1	13
4	Casertana	6	3	3	0	12
5	Audace Cerignola	6	3	1	2	10
6	Inter U23	6	3	1	2	10
7	Casarano	6	3	1	2	10
8	AZ Picerno	6	3	0	3	9
9	Salernitana	6	2	3	1	9
10	SS Monopoli	6	2	2	2	8
11	Catania	6	2	1	3	7
12	Barletta	6	1	4	1	7
13	Scafatese	6	1	4	1	7
14	Team Altamura	6	2	1	3	7
15	Savoia	6	1	3	2	6
16	Foggia	6	1	2	3	5
17	Cavese	6	1	2	3	5
18	Giugliano	6	1	1	4	4
19	Cosenza	6	0	2	4	2
20	Crotone	6	0	3	3

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Potenza	6	13	8	+5	13
2	AZ Picerno	6	12	10	+2	9
3	Casertana	6	11	8	+3	12
4	Inter U23	6	11	11	0	10
5	Giugliano	6	11	16	-5	4
6	Sorrento	6	10	5	+5	15
7	Audace Cerignola	6	10	5	+5	10
8	Catania	6	10	8	+2	7
9	Barletta	6	10	9	+1	7
10	Casarano	6	10	10	0	10
11	Bari	6	9	4	+5	13
12	Salernitana	6	9	7	+2	9
13	Scafatese	6	8	9	-1	7
14	Cavese	6	8	12	-4	5
15	Savoia	6	7	7	0	6
16	SS Monopoli	6	5	4	+1	8
17	Crotone	6	5	9	-4
18	Cosenza	6	5	15	-10	2
19	Foggia	6	4	7	-3	5
20	Team Altamura	6	4	8	-4	7