Predicciones / Copa Mundial 2026 / España vs Bélgica

España vs Bélgica

Group H
España España
Jul 10, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.83
1 0.87
Bélgica Bélgica

Betting Signal

modelo dice
España 58.7%
El mercado dice
España 59.7%
Diferencia
1.0 pp
Estado
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers España (59.7%).

España — market direction supports the model lean.

Mercado vs modelo

España
58.7% vs 59.68%
-1.0 pp
Draw
25.3% vs 24.63%
+0.7 pp
Bélgica
16.0% vs 15.69%
+0.3 pp

La brecha más grande

España -1.0 pp

El mercado es sustancialmente más optimista en España que en el modelo.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Pronóstico de IA
España 58.7%
Draw 25.3%
Bélgica 16.0%

Generado a partir de una simulación de Poisson ajustada a Elo. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas.

Mostrar datos completos del modelo
Probabilidades de líneas Poisson
Línea Más Menos
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.5% 23.5%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Expectativas del partido
Más de 2,5 goles
50.6%
Balanced
Menos de 2,5 goles
49.4%
Ambos marcan
50.1%
Balanced
Portería a cero probable
49.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 50.1% · No 49.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Marcadores más probables
Marcador Probabilidad
1-1 12.1%
2-0 11.3%
1-0 10.9%
2-1 9.8%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.1% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase de partido: Finished

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Awaiting CLV

  1. Predicción generada
  2. Mercado comparado
    Entrada Pendiente
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
    Cierre 1.63
  5. CLV evaluado
    CLV Pendiente Awaiting CLV calculation
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Partidos Group H