Predicciones / Copa Mundial 2026 / Uruguay vs España

Uruguay vs España

Group H
Uruguay Uruguay
Jun 27, 2026 - 00:00
0 0.91
1 1.79
España España

Betting Signal

modelo dice
España 56.9%
Estado
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans España (56.9%).

The model leans España, with modest separation from other outcomes. Monitor market movement before kickoff.

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Pronóstico de IA
Uruguay 17.3%
Draw 25.8%
España 56.9%

Generado a partir de una simulación de Poisson ajustada a Elo. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas.

Mostrar datos completos del modelo
Probabilidades de líneas Poisson
Línea Más Menos
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Expectativas del partido
Más de 2,5 goles
50.6%
Balanced
Menos de 2,5 goles
49.4%
Ambos marcan
51.1%
Balanced
Portería a cero probable
48.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 51.1% · No 48.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Marcadores más probables
Marcador Probabilidad
1-1 12.3%
0-2 10.8%
0-1 10.6%
1-2 9.8%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.3% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase de partido: Finished

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Closing unavailable

  1. Predicción generada
  2. Mercado comparado
    Entrada Pendiente
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
    Cierre Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
  5. CLV evaluado
    CLV Pendiente Requires closing line after full time
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Partidos Group H