The model missed the final outcome (1. FC Nürnberg win 2–1).
The model had projected Hannover 96 at 48.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Hannover 96 1. FC Nürnberg ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 25.9% | 41.5% | -15.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.9% | 23.8% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Hannover 96 | 48.3% | 34.7% | +13.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 1. FC Nürnberg's win probability at 41.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.9%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue 1. FC Nürnberg win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 1. FC Nürnberg than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.08) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hannover 96 by 15.6 percentage points (63.9% vs model 48.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 1. FC Nürnberg 25.9% · Draw 25.8% · Hannover 96 48.3%
- xG · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 — Hannover 96 1.80
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 1. FC Nürnberg 2.33 · Draw 4.06 · Hannover 96 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · 1. FC Nürnberg 41.5% · Draw 23.8% · Hannover 96 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 1. FC Nürnberg 2.33 · Draw 4.06 · Hannover 96 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · 1. FC Nürnberg 41.5% · Draw 23.8% · Hannover 96 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 1. FC Nürnberg win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
7/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
1. FC Nürnberg win · 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 Hannover 96
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 61.6
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.1032,
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"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1032,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 10.3,
"text": "+10.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.347,
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hannover 96",
"sort_key": 10092.88,
"tier": "best"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "12/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "12/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"alert_team": "Hannover 96",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.62,
"hero_label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"market_team": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"model_prob_pct": 48.3,
"model_team": "Hannover 96",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3471,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hannover 96 at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hannover 96 as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hannover 96",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1032,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "12/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.62,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.8,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.8,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.80 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +33%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"steam_team": "Hannover 96",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3471,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hannover 96 at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hannover 96 as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hannover 96",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1032,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg 1.28 xG vs Hannover 96 1.80 \u2192 Hannover 96 48.3%",
"Market: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg ~34.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Hannover 96 odds \u2191 +13.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hannover 96, but the market has moved away from Hannover 96.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.62,
"fair_prob": 25.89,
"label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob": 41.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.03,
"fair_prob": 25.85,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.59,
"fair_prob": 48.26,
"label": "Hannover 96",
"market_prob": 34.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.61,
"fair_prob": 59.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.71,
"fair_prob": 40.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.01,
"fair_prob": 61.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.01,
"fair_prob": 38.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.89,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob_pct": 41.51,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Hannover 96"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg\u0027s win probability at 41.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 25.9%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Hannover 96",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.6,
"model_prob_pct": 48.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg 1.28 xG vs Hannover 96 1.80 \u2192 Hannover 96 48.3%",
"Market: 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg ~34.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Hannover 96 odds \u2191 +13.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hannover 96, but the market has moved away from Hannover 96.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.62,
"hero_label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Hannover 96 odds lengthened \u2191 +13.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Hannover 96 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Hannover 96 \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Hannover 96 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Hannover 96 \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Hannover 96 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/14) supports the current market view on Hannover 96."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.4 pp (at 48.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.4,
"max_prob_pct": 48.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.62,
"edge_pp": -15.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.89,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"market_prob_pct": 41.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.03,
"edge_pp": 2.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.59,
"edge_pp": 13.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 48.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hannover 96",
"market_prob_pct": 34.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Hannover 96 \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg (34.7%).",
"Hannover 96 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +13.4%, 12/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hannover 96, Market \u2192 1. FC N\u00fcrnberg, while Hannover 96 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.92,
"closing_odds": 2.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.92,
"entry_odds": 2.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 37m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Hannover 96 (13.4%, 12/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.79",
"2.58",
"2.38"
],
"display": "2.79 \u2192 2.22 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 37m",
"pick_team": "Hannover 96",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.79,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 12/14 sportsbooks on Hannover 96",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hannover 96",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Market moved away from Hannover 96 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Hannover 96",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Hannover 96",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Hannover 96",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hannover-96",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hannover 96",
"away_team_id": 166,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/166.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hannover 96",
"away_team_public_id": "1Kbx5KmKU1pa0y",
"away_team_slug": "hannover-96",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576176,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"home_team_id": 171,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/171.webp",
"home_team_name": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg",
"home_team_public_id": "2SLod6bqVQAm9D",
"home_team_slug": "1-fc-nurnberg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "1-fc-nurnberg",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 16:30:00",
"public_id": "4whAacRtlj3Mu4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nuremberg",
"venue_name": "Max-Morlock-Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3581,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0488,
"ev": 0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3467,
"draw": 0.2382,
"home": 0.4151
},
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"p_final": 0.3954
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.017,
"implied_prob": 0.2382,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3467,
"draw": 0.2382,
"home": 0.4151
},
"model_prob": 0.2583,
"p_final": 0.2421
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3446,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0538,
"ev": -0.1582,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3467,
"draw": 0.2382,
"home": 0.4151
},
"model_prob": 0.2589,
"p_final": 0.3613
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.1244,
"ev": 0.3471,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.4828
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.2583
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.1703,
"ev": -0.3967,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.2589
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4001,
"alpha_yes": 0.5502,
"best_no_odd": 3.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.43,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0701,
"edge_yes": -0.0701,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2749,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0112,
"ev_yes": -0.1191,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1277,
"implied_no": 0.3139,
"implied_yes": 0.6861,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4001,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.3222,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"p_final": 0.347
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5502,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.1277,
"implied_prob": 0.6778,
"model_prob": 0.616,
"p_final": 0.6438
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.347,
"p_final_yes": 0.6438,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5486,
"alpha_under": 0.3983,
"best_over_odd": 1.51,
"best_under_odd": 3.26,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": -0.0761,
"edge_under": 0.0771,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1016,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1268,
"ev_under": 0.3236,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0086,
"implied_over": 0.6711,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6585,
"implied_under": 0.3289,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3415,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5486,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.6585,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.6237
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": -0.0086,
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"model_prob": 0.406,
"p_final": 0.3672
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6237,
"p_final_under": 0.3672,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3471,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3236,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3236,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3471,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hannover 96 at 48.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hannover 96 as the value side (48.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hannover 96",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hannover 96, but the model still strongly favours Hannover 96.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1032,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.3,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.52"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.52
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.616,
"draw_prob": 0.2583,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4828,
"over_prob": 0.595,
"total_xg": 3.08,
"under_prob": 0.406,
"xg_diff": 0.52
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0488,
"ev": 0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hannover 96"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4001,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0247,
"market_prob": 0.3222,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.384,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4001,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.3222,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"p_final": 0.347
},
"p_final": 0.347,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0112,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5502,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.1277,
"implied_prob": 0.6778,
"model_prob": 0.616,
"p_final": 0.6438
}
},
"edge": 0.0701,
"ev": 0.2749,
"implied_prob": 0.3139,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0257,
"market_prob": 0.3415,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.406,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5486,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0349,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.6585,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.6237
},
"p_final": 0.3672,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0086,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": -0.0086,
"implied_prob": 0.3415,
"model_prob": 0.406,
"p_final": 0.3672
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0771,
"ev": 0.3236,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.406,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576176,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3236,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4828,
"draw": 0.2583,
"home": 0.2589
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hannover 96",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hannover 96",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hannover 96",
"home": "1. FC N\u00fcrnberg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.124813,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3236,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.406,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1032,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3467,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4828,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.347,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576176,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T16:29:31.382521+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. Bundesliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Hertha Berlín | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Hertha Berlín | 4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 4 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 4 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 8 |
| 4 | Hertha Berlín | 4 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 12 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 9 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 6 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 5 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 13 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 9 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 4 |
