The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Holstein Kiel at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Holstein Kiel Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 41.8% | 54.8% | -13.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.6% | 23.4% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| VfL Osnabrück | 30.6% | 21.8% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Holstein Kiel's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Holstein Kiel than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Holstein Kiel; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Holstein Kiel by 13.0 percentage points (54.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Holstein Kiel 41.8% · Draw 27.6% · VfL Osnabrück 30.6%
- xG · Holstein Kiel 1.57 — VfL Osnabrück 1.32
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Holstein Kiel 1.76 · Draw 4.12 · VfL Osnabrück 4.42
- Implied 1X2 · Holstein Kiel 54.8% · Draw 23.4% · VfL Osnabrück 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Holstein Kiel 1.76 · Draw 4.12 · VfL Osnabrück 4.42
- Implied 1X2 · Holstein Kiel 54.8% · Draw 23.4% · VfL Osnabrück 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
34/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Holstein Kiel 1–1 VfL Osnabrück
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1461,
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},
{
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.0,
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "steam",
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{
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],
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},
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"alignment": {
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
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"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Holstein Kiel at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Holstein Kiel as the value side (41.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Holstein Kiel",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Holstein Kiel \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576183 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Holstein Kiel).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1461,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4182,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.264,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.01,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.57,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.57,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.57 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Holstein Kiel)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Holstein Kiel)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2096,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3511,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Holstein Kiel at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Holstein Kiel as the value side (41.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Holstein Kiel",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Holstein Kiel \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576183 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Holstein Kiel).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1461,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4182,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.264,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Holstein Kiel 1.57 xG vs VfL Osnabr\u00fcck 1.32 \u2192 Holstein Kiel 41.8%",
"Market: Holstein Kiel ~54.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Holstein Kiel with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.01,
"fair_prob": 41.77,
"label": "Holstein Kiel",
"market_prob": 54.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.2,
"fair_prob": 27.6,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.81,
"fair_prob": 30.62,
"label": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"market_prob": 21.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.97,
"fair_prob": 55.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.97,
"fair_prob": 44.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.85,
"fair_prob": 59.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.85,
"fair_prob": 40.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Holstein Kiel",
"market_prob_pct": 54.78,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Holstein Kiel\u0027s win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Holstein Kiel",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 41.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Holstein Kiel \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Holstein Kiel 1.57 xG vs VfL Osnabr\u00fcck 1.32 \u2192 Holstein Kiel 41.8%",
"Market: Holstein Kiel ~54.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Holstein Kiel with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.01,
"hero_label": "Holstein Kiel",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +2.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Holstein Kiel than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Holstein Kiel than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Holstein Kiel more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 41.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 41.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Holstein Kiel",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Holstein Kiel higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.01,
"edge_pp": -13.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Holstein Kiel",
"market_prob_pct": 54.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.2,
"edge_pp": 4.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.4,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.81,
"edge_pp": 8.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"market_prob_pct": 21.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Holstein Kiel (54.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.6%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Holstein Kiel \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 100h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Draw (2.6%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (6/9).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.12",
"3.96",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 3.44 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 100h 15m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.44"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
4.12,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.4",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vfl-osnabruck",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"away_team_id": 1324,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1324.webp",
"away_team_name": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"away_team_public_id": "4tsplVCmaB1LdV",
"away_team_slug": "vfl-osnabruck",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576183,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Holstein Kiel",
"home_team_id": 191,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/191.webp",
"home_team_name": "Holstein Kiel",
"home_team_public_id": "0rEXKyor64jvXE",
"home_team_slug": "holstein-kiel",
"ht.home_team_slug": "holstein-kiel",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:00:00",
"public_id": "01j43y3OPCbRfj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kiel",
"venue_name": "Holstein-Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1737,
"best_odd": 4.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": 0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.2181,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2181,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.5478
},
"model_prob": 0.3057,
"p_final": 0.2333
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1874,
"best_odd": 4.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": -0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.234,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2181,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.5478
},
"model_prob": 0.2761,
"p_final": 0.2419
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4833,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0626,
"ev": -0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2181,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.5478
},
"model_prob": 0.4182,
"p_final": 0.4852
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.42,
"edge": 0.0794,
"ev": 0.3511,
"implied_prob": 0.2262,
"model_prob": 0.3057
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.12,
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.1376,
"implied_prob": 0.2427,
"model_prob": 0.2761
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.15,
"ev": -0.2639,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.4182
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4036,
"alpha_yes": 0.5549,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0285,
"edge_yes": -0.0285,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0328,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0458,
"ev_yes": -0.0897,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0931,
"implied_no": 0.3765,
"implied_yes": 0.6235,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4036,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0458,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"model_prob": 0.405,
"p_final": 0.3895
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5549,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.6066
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3895,
"p_final_yes": 0.6066,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5199,
"alpha_under": 0.3781,
"best_over_odd": 1.58,
"best_under_odd": 2.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.415,
"edge_over": -0.0697,
"edge_under": 0.0697,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1278,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.13,
"ev_under": 0.2096,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0179,
"implied_over": 0.6217,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6184,
"implied_under": 0.3783,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3816,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5199,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.6184,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.5839
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.3816,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.4067
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5839,
"p_final_under": 0.4067,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.89,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2096,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3511,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2096,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Holstein Kiel)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2096,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3511,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Holstein Kiel at 41.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Holstein Kiel as the value side (41.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Holstein Kiel",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Holstein Kiel \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +35% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576183 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Holstein Kiel).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +35% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1461,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4182,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.264,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.3,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.25
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.595,
"draw_prob": 0.2761,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4182,
"over_prob": 0.552,
"total_xg": 2.89,
"under_prob": 0.448,
"xg_diff": 0.25
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.2181,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3057,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0626,
"ev": -0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4182,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Holstein Kiel"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4036,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.379,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.405,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4036,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0458,
"implied_prob": 0.379,
"model_prob": 0.405,
"p_final": 0.3895
},
"p_final": 0.3895,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0458,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5549,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.621,
"model_prob": 0.595,
"p_final": 0.6066
}
},
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": 0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3765,
"model_prob": 0.405,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0251,
"market_prob": 0.3816,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5199,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.6184,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.5839
},
"p_final": 0.4067,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0179,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3781,
"best_odd": 2.415,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.3816,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.4067
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0697,
"ev": 0.2096,
"implied_prob": 0.3783,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576183,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2096,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3057,
"draw": 0.2761,
"home": 0.4182
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "VfL Osnabr\u00fcck",
"home": "Holstein Kiel"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089206,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2096,
"implied_prob": 0.3783,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1461,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4182,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.264,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576183,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:01:03.865354+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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2. Bundesliga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 5 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 7 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 11 |
| 4 | Hertha Berlín | 6 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 18 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 4 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 11 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 16 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 7 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 10 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 |
