The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Walsall at 39.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Walsall Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere Rovers | 35.1% | 39.6% | -4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 25.6% | 28.8% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Walsall | 39.3% | 31.6% | +7.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Walsall's win probability at 39.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.6%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Walsall.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Walsall; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Walsall by 7.7 percentage points (31.6% vs model 39.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tranmere Rovers 35.1% · Draw 25.6% · Walsall 39.4%
- xG · Tranmere Rovers 1.60 — Walsall 1.70
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tranmere Rovers 2.41 · Draw 3.32 · Walsall 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Tranmere Rovers 39.6% · Draw 28.8% · Walsall 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Tranmere Rovers 2.41 · Draw 3.32 · Walsall 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Tranmere Rovers 39.6% · Draw 28.8% · Walsall 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
21/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Tranmere Rovers 1–1 Walsall
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0168,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.7,
"text": "+1.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
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},
"model_prob": 0.3936,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Walsall",
"sort_key": 5213.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 10.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.68,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.173,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Walsall at 39.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Walsall as the value side (39.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Walsall",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3936,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 25.9,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.68,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.7,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 26.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.6,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.7,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.60 \u00b7 Away xG 1.70 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +26%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1886,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Walsall at 39.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Walsall as the value side (39.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Walsall",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3936,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 25.9,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tranmere Rovers 1.60 xG vs Walsall 1.70 \u2192 Walsall 39.3%",
"Market: Tranmere Rovers ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Walsall with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.53,
"fair_prob": 35.09,
"label": "Tranmere Rovers",
"market_prob": 39.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.16,
"fair_prob": 25.6,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.68,
"fair_prob": 39.3,
"label": "Walsall",
"market_prob": 31.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.13,
"fair_prob": 64.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.13,
"fair_prob": 35.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.41,
"fair_prob": 66.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.41,
"fair_prob": 33.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.3,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Walsall",
"market_prob_pct": 31.62,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Walsall\u0027s win probability at 39.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 31.6%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Walsall",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Walsall \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tranmere Rovers 1.60 xG vs Walsall 1.70 \u2192 Walsall 39.3%",
"Market: Tranmere Rovers ~31.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Walsall with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.68,
"hero_label": "Walsall",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Walsall.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Walsall.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Walsall.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.2 pp (at 39.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.2,
"max_prob_pct": 39.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Walsall",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.7,
"lead": "The model rates Walsall considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.53,
"edge_pp": -4.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.09,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tranmere Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 39.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.16,
"edge_pp": -3.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.68,
"edge_pp": 7.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.3,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Walsall",
"market_prob_pct": 31.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Tranmere Rovers (31.6%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.5%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Walsall, Market \u2192 Tranmere Rovers, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.11,
"closing_odds": 3.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.11,
"entry_odds": 3.02,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (12.5%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.40",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.99 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 126h 29m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.32,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,12.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "walsall",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Walsall",
"away_team_id": 1342,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1342.webp",
"away_team_name": "Walsall",
"away_team_public_id": "2xRCKYDTrzEaV8",
"away_team_slug": "walsall",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563777,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Tranmere Rovers",
"home_team_id": 1381,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1381.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tranmere Rovers",
"home_team_public_id": "06DyXhglLIt7hJ",
"home_team_slug": "tranmere",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tranmere",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "League Two",
"league_id": 42,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/42.webp",
"league_name": "League Two",
"league_public_id": "20ois23TghHC4h",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0aGSeQRfgW0k5b",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Wirral",
"venue_name": "Prenton Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2652,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3162,
"draw": 0.2876,
"home": 0.3962
},
"model_prob": 0.3936,
"p_final": 0.3367
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.2876,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3162,
"draw": 0.2876,
"home": 0.3962
},
"model_prob": 0.2557,
"p_final": 0.2785
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4193,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.3962,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3162,
"draw": 0.2876,
"home": 0.3962
},
"model_prob": 0.3508,
"p_final": 0.3772
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0624,
"ev": 0.1886,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3936
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": -0.0455,
"ev": -0.1512,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.2557
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.0642,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3508
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.193,
"alpha_yes": 0.2123,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0941,
"edge_yes": 0.0941,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2462,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1154,
"ev_yes": 0.1105,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0435,
"implied_no": 0.4291,
"implied_yes": 0.5709,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.335,
"p_final": 0.4114
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.665,
"p_final": 0.5904
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4114,
"p_final_yes": 0.5904,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1929,
"alpha_under": 0.1929,
"best_over_odd": 1.83,
"best_under_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": 0.1213,
"edge_under": -0.1213,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.173,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0238,
"ev_under": -0.2784,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1121,
"implied_over": 0.5197,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5187,
"implied_under": 0.4803,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4813,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0236,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.5187,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5423
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.4813,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4577
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5423,
"p_final_under": 0.4577,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.3,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1886,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1886,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Walsall at 39.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Walsall as the value side (39.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Walsall",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Walsall).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3936,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 25.9,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.665,
"draw_prob": 0.2557,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3936,
"over_prob": 0.641,
"total_xg": 3.3,
"under_prob": 0.359,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": 0.0168,
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3936,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Walsall"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.5703,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.335,
"p_final": 0.4114
},
"p_final": 0.5904,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0435,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2123,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0435,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.665,
"p_final": 0.5904
}
},
"edge": 0.0941,
"ev": 0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.665,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0236,
"market_prob": 0.5187,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0236,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.5187,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"p_final": 0.5423
},
"p_final": 0.5423,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0238,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.4813,
"model_prob": 0.359,
"p_final": 0.4577
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1213,
"ev": 0.173,
"implied_prob": 0.5197,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1563777,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3936,
"draw": 0.2557,
"home": 0.3508
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Walsall",
"home": "Tranmere Rovers"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.138616,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.173,
"implied_prob": 0.5197,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.641,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0168,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3936,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1887,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+18.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563777,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:59:26.536554+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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League Two — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Cheltenham Town | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | York City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Crewe Alexandra | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Salford City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Rotherham United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Colchester United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Oldham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Cheltenham Town | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | York City | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Walsall | 7 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Rotherham United | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Newport County | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Salford City | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Oldham | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Colchester United | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Crewe Alexandra | 7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 19 | Rochdale | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 20 | Crawley Town | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury Town | 7 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 22 | Exeter City | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 23 | Northampton | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 7 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 6 |
| 2 | Walsall | 7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 3 | Rotherham United | 7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | +1.5 | 9 |
| 4 | Northampton | 7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | +1.3 | 6 |
| 5 | Barnet | 7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | +1.0 | 15 |
| 6 | Shrewsbury Town | 7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | +0.9 | 7 |
| 7 | Crewe Alexandra | 7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | +0.9 | 11 |
| 8 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | +0.8 | 13 |
| 9 | Oldham | 7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 12 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | +0.4 | 10 |
| 12 | York City | 7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 13 | Chesterfield | 7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 11 |
| 14 | Port Vale | 7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 5 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.8 | 6 |
| 16 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 10 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | -0.9 | 4 |
| 18 | Salford City | 7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 19 | Swindon Town | 7 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -1.3 | 10 |
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | 7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | -1.5 | 12 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | -1.7 | 12 |
| 22 | Colchester United | 7 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | 9 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 7 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 24 | Newport County | 7 | — | — | — | 6 |
