AI correctly predicted the Benátky nad Jizerou win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Benátky nad Jizerou Benátky nad Jizerou ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Čáslav | 34.7% | 29.2% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Benátky nad Jizerou | 35.6% | 45.9% | -10.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Benátky nad Jizerou's win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Benátky nad Jizerou win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Benátky nad Jizerou than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Benátky nad Jizerou higher (45.9% vs model 35.6%, 10.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Benátky nad Jizerou win 0–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Čáslav 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Benátky nad Jizerou 35.6%
- xG · Čáslav 1.29 — Benátky nad Jizerou 1.31
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Čáslav 3.10 · Draw 3.64 · Benátky nad Jizerou 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Čáslav 29.2% · Draw 24.9% · Benátky nad Jizerou 45.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Čáslav 3.10 · Draw 3.64 · Benátky nad Jizerou 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Čáslav 29.2% · Draw 24.9% · Benátky nad Jizerou 45.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Benátky nad Jizerou win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
48/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.97
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Benátky nad Jizerou win · Čáslav 0–2 Benátky nad Jizerou
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.1983,
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +34.8%",
"alert_team": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou)."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2989,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "4/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.3,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +34.8%",
"steam_team": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2989,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010c\u00e1slav 1.29 xG vs Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou 1.31 \u2192 Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou 35.6%",
"Market: Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou ~45.9% implied",
"Market Drift: \u010c\u00e1slav odds \u2191 +34.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.51,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"market_prob": 29.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.3,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"market_prob": 45.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"market_prob_pct": 45.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "\u010c\u00e1slav"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou\u0027s win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u010c\u00e1slav 1.29 xG vs Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou 1.31 \u2192 Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou 35.6%",
"Market: Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou ~45.9% implied",
"Market Drift: \u010c\u00e1slav odds \u2191 +34.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.3,
"hero_label": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "\u010c\u00e1slav odds lengthened \u2191 +34.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, \u010c\u00e1slav has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from \u010c\u00e1slav \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou than the current fair estimate.",
"However, \u010c\u00e1slav has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from \u010c\u00e1slav \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, \u010c\u00e1slav has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/5) supports the current market view on \u010c\u00e1slav."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.51,
"edge_pp": 5.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"market_prob_pct": 29.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.79,
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.3,
"edge_pp": -10.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"market_prob_pct": 45.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from \u010c\u00e1slav \u2014 odds lengthened by 34.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou (45.9%).",
"However, \u010c\u00e1slav has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +34.8%, 4/5) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.76,
"closing_odds": 1.97,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.76,
"entry_odds": 1.97,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +34.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "4/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 34.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"4/5 books lengthened \u010c\u00e1slav together (34.8% drift, score 76) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.70",
"2.30"
],
"display": "3.14 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 44m",
"pick_team": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.14"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: \u010c\u00e1slav odds \u2191 +34.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: \u010c\u00e1slav odds \u2191 +34.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.8%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/5",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +34.8%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_team_name": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"away_team_id": 7274,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7274.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"away_team_public_id": "4rzB0KvcyOb9AS",
"away_team_slug": "benatky-nad-jizerou",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1562741,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"home_team_id": 7384,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7384.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u010c\u00e1slav",
"home_team_public_id": "1IOt6wIhkETTNG",
"home_team_slug": "caslav",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Liga - CFL B de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_id": 685,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/685.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Liga - CFL B de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_public_id": "48dS4TMcwbMM7I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:00:00",
"public_id": "3ODInlFYEVpRIA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Caslav",
"venue_name": "Stadion Pod Hradkem"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5069,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0525,
"ev": -0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4594,
"draw": 0.2486,
"home": 0.2919
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.407
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2783,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.2486,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4594,
"draw": 0.2486,
"home": 0.2919
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.262
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2751,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0478,
"implied_prob": 0.2919,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4594,
"draw": 0.2486,
"home": 0.2919
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3072
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.1517,
"ev": -0.2988,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": 0.0803,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1131,
"alpha_yes": 0.1555,
"best_no_odd": 2.39,
"best_yes_odd": 1.49,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0685,
"edge_yes": -0.0685,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0875,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_yes": -0.1879,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1018,
"implied_no": 0.3865,
"implied_yes": 0.6135,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3943
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3943,
"p_final_yes": 0.6028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2086,
"alpha_under": 0.1517,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.23,
"edge_over": -0.106,
"edge_under": 0.106,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.113,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0432,
"implied_over": 0.588,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5868,
"implied_under": 0.412,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4132,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.113,
"implied_prob": 0.5868,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.565
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1517,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4291
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.565,
"p_final_under": 0.4291,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2989,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0525,
"ev": -0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.3865,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3943
},
"p_final": 0.3943,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"edge": 0.0685,
"ev": 0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1517,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0159,
"market_prob": 0.4132,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.113,
"implied_prob": 0.5868,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.565
},
"p_final": 0.4291,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0432,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1517,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0432,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4291
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.106,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562741,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ben\u00e1tky nad Jizerou",
"home": "\u010c\u00e1slav"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1983,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2989,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562741,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:00:45.037906+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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