The model missed the final outcome (Mladá Boleslav II win 0–1).
The model had projected Hradec Králové II at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Hradec Králové II Mladá Boleslav II ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Králové II | 38.0% | 42.1% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Mladá Boleslav II | 32.4% | 32.0% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Mladá Boleslav II win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Hradec Králové II; match finished Mladá Boleslav II
Market lesson
The full-time result was Mladá Boleslav II win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Mladá Boleslav II 32.4%
- xG · Hradec Králové II 1.36 — Mladá Boleslav II 1.24
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 2.15 · Draw 3.50 · Mladá Boleslav II 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Mladá Boleslav II 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 2.15 · Draw 3.50 · Mladá Boleslav II 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Mladá Boleslav II 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mladá Boleslav II win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
79/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Mladá Boleslav II win · Hradec Králové II 0–1 Mladá Boleslav II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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],
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"decision_chain": {
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},
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],
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},
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.11,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 1.36 xG vs Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II 1.24 \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 38.0%",
"Market: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II ~42.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob": 42.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.71,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"market_prob": 32.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.17,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.17,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob_pct": 42.12,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 1.36 xG vs Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II 1.24 \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 38.0%",
"Market: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II ~42.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.11,
"hero_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.11,
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob_pct": 42.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.71,
"edge_pp": 3.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.39,
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II (42.1%).",
"Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"closing_odds": 2.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.51,
"entry_odds": 2.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mlada-boleslav-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"away_team_id": 12816,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12816.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"away_team_public_id": "1QklPJxKuTLQBR",
"away_team_slug": "mlada-boleslav-ii",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1562775,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"home_team_id": 14495,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14495.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"home_team_public_id": "40HdnZKlFG22bf",
"home_team_slug": "hradec-kralove-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hradec-kralove-ii",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Liga - CFL B de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_id": 685,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/685.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Liga - CFL B de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_public_id": "48dS4TMcwbMM7I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 08:15:00",
"public_id": "3gS9geZxhpp4Si",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Hradec Kralove",
"venue_name": "SA Slavia HK"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4475,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0897,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2588,
"home": 0.4212
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3217
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2833,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.2588,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2588,
"home": 0.4212
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2693
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4224,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2588,
"home": 0.4212
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.404
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.0839,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": 0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0848,
"ev": -0.1823,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1606,
"alpha_yes": 0.2208,
"best_no_odd": 2.41,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0717,
"edge_yes": -0.0717,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.099,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0546,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1059,
"implied_no": 0.3843,
"implied_yes": 0.6157,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3956
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2208,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6001
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3956,
"p_final_yes": 0.6001,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.209,
"alpha_under": 0.152,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.22,
"edge_over": -0.103,
"edge_under": 0.103,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1144,
"ev_under": 0.2121,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0454,
"implied_over": 0.585,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5858,
"implied_under": 0.415,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4142,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.5858,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5641
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4142,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.43
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5641,
"p_final_under": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.384,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3956
},
"p_final": 0.3956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0546,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2208,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6001
}
},
"edge": 0.0717,
"ev": 0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.4142,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.5858,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5641
},
"p_final": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0454,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4142,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.43
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.103,
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562775,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2121,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"home": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.076907,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562775,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T08:14:30.629980+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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