Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.5% · EV No +25%+
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Molinos El Pirata Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 50.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Molinos El Pirata, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (50.5% vs modelo 36.1%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Molinos El Pirata -14.4 pp
- Amplitud
- 7/8
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Molinos El Pirata que la estimación justa actual.
El comportamiento actual del mercado sugiere un amplio acuerdo en que Molinos El Pirata es el lado dominante.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molinos El Pirata | 36.11% | 50.54% | -14.4 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 22.61% | +7.0 pp |
| Universitario | 34.24% | 26.85% | +7.4 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Molinos El Pirata · Probabilidad del modelo 36.1%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 50.5%
EV línea de consenso: -25.6%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -6.9% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -18.5% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.5% · EV No +25%+
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.5% · EV No +25%+
Molinos El Pirata market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Molinos El Pirata
- Odds move
- 1.91 → 1.91 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 7/8
- Steam score
- 26 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.7
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2667,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.2685,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2682,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.2261,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.245
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.47,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0679,
"ev": -0.2562,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4375
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"edge_no": 0.0367,
"edge_yes": -0.0367,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3195,
"ev_yes": 0.0355,
"implied_no": 0.4183,
"implied_yes": 0.5817,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.69,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"edge_over": -0.1547,
"edge_under": 0.1547,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1854,
"ev_under": 0.7094,
"implied_over": 0.6367,
"implied_under": 0.3633,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7094,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0679,
"ev": -0.2562,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Molinos El Pirata"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0367,
"ev": 0.3195,
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1547,
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3633,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1553038,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7094,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3195,
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3195,
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universitario",
"home": "Molinos El Pirata"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.257228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7094,
"implied_prob": 0.3633,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553038,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:16:57.296608+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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