Sí 45.5% · No 54.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +2.4% · EV No -5.7%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Maghreb Fès Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 35.9%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 31.9%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Maghreb Fès +4.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 12/12
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, FUS Rabat ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en FUS Rabat.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| FUS Rabat | 31.31% | 32.44% | -1.1 pp |
| Empate | 32.82% | 35.69% | -2.9 pp |
| Maghreb Fès | 35.87% | 31.87% | +4.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+8.9% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Borde delgado: BTTS Sí (+2.4% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor (especulativo)
Maghreb Fès · Probabilidad del modelo 35.9%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 31.9%
EV línea de consenso: -6.1%
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 13.4%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.0/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.0 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Probabilidad de empate superior al 30% (−0,5)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +8.9% ·
EV inferior -9.1%
(10 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +2.4% · EV No -5.7%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +2.4% · EV No -5.7%
FUS Rabat market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on FUS Rabat
- Odds move
- 2.60 → 2.60 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 12/12
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.8
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4231,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.3187,
"model_prob": 0.3585,
"p_final": 0.3355
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4305,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.1389,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.3279,
"p_final": 0.3444
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4426,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0048,
"ev": -0.121,
"implied_prob": 0.3244,
"model_prob": 0.3136,
"p_final": 0.3196
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"edge_no": -0.0294,
"edge_yes": 0.0294,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0571,
"ev_yes": 0.0237,
"implied_no": 0.5744,
"implied_yes": 0.4256,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.95,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.0374,
"edge_under": -0.0374,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0886,
"ev_under": -0.0914,
"implied_over": 0.3316,
"implied_under": 0.6684,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.17,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0886,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.455,
"draw_prob": 0.3279,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3585,
"over_prob": 0.369,
"total_xg": 2.17,
"under_prob": 0.631,
"xg_diff": 0.09
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.3187,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3585,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Maghreb F\u00e8s"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0294,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4256,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0374,
"ev": 0.0886,
"implied_prob": 0.3316,
"model_prob": 0.369,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1550840,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0886,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3585,
"draw": 0.3279,
"home": 0.3136
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maghreb F\u00e8s",
"home": "FUS Rabat"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.032693,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0886,
"implied_prob": 0.3316,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.369,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550840,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:39:22.012456+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Botola Pro — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Wydad AC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Raja Casablanca | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | FAR Rabat | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 5 | CODM Meknès | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Hassania Agadir | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Difaa EL Jadida | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympique Dcheïra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Renaissance Berkane | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Kawkab Marrakech | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | FUS Rabat | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | UTS Rabat | 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Yacoub El Mansour | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 16 | Olympique Safi | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maghreb Fès | 10 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | FAR Rabat | 8 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Wydad AC | 8 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 | Renaissance Berkane | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 5 | Raja Casablanca | 9 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 19 |
| 6 | Hassania Agadir | 10 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | FUS Rabat | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | CODM Meknès | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Olympique Dcheïra | 10 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Yacoub El Mansour | 10 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | UTS Rabat | 11 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Kawkab Marrakech | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Difaa EL Jadida | 10 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 9 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Olympique Safi | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
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