Predicción confiable
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Sabadell, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (43.4% vs modelo 36.1%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en Sabadell.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell | 36.11% | 43.4% | -7.3 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 29.4% | +0.2 pp |
| Zamora | 34.24% | 27.2% | +7.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
Sabadell market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Sabadell
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1501,
"implied_prob": 0.434,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sabadell"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0686,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0628,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4192,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1550673,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.09,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zamora",
"home": "Sabadell"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04905,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550673,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T07:24:00.843307+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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