Predicciones / Fútbol / Chile. Copa Chile / Palestino vs Magallanes

Palestino vs Magallanes Alerta de dinero aguda: Magallanes ↑ +53.3% movimiento de mercado detectado

Jun 20, 2026 - 16:30
1.24
1.36
32% 30% 38%

Evaluación de predicción

Tenga cuidado

Favorito
Magallanes Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
38.0%
Probabilidad de mercado
17.1%
Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia

Resumen:

Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.

Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado

movimiento actual
Magallanes ↑ +53.3% 3.75 → 5.75
Tipo de movimiento
🔥 Steam fuerte
Puntuación de vapor
91A+
Strong multi-book steam
Amplitud del mercado
4/5
Fase
Reajuste agresivo
Libro de referencia
Bet365
Movimiento liderado por sharp: Betfair
validación CLV
Waiting for Close

Mayor movimiento del día

Camino de probabilidades — Magallanes

🐢 Desplazamiento lento durante 27h 56m

Abierto 6.38
Bajo/Alto 3.10
Actual 5.75

Narrativa de mercado

4/5 casas sincronizadas en Magallanes (53.3% steam, puntuación 91) — repricing de alta convicción multi-casa supera movimientos aislados.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia
Mayor brecha
Palestino -26.7 pp
Amplitud
4/5
Actividad actual del mercado
Las probabilidades de {equipo} se alargaron ↑ +53.3%.

La estimación justa difiere sustancialmente de los precios actuales del mercado. Pueden ocurrir grandes divergencias cuando los datos de calificación son incompletos, las estimaciones de la fuerza del equipo son inciertas o el mercado incorpora información que no está presente en el modelo. Interprete con precaución.

Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Palestino 32.39% 59.08% -26.7 pp
Empate 29.59% 23.87% +5.7 pp
Magallanes 38.01% 17.05% +21.0 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Se requiere validación del modelo

El modelo y el mercado difieren materialmente (26.7 puntos porcentuales). Se recomienda una validación adicional antes de interpretar esta comparación.

  • Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +25%+ Modelo 51.8%
Secundaria (valor equilibrado): BTTS No (vehículo eléctrico +11.7%) — 45.6% Modelo
EV más bajo que el primario, pero con mayor probabilidad de modelo (más “estable” cuando se muestra).
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Mejor valor (+EV)
54.4% · No 45.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -3.2% · EV No +11.7%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
1X2 Mejor valor (+EV)
Magallanes · Probabilidad del modelo 38.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 17.1%
EV línea de consenso: +4.6%
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
  • Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -19.5% · EV inferior +25%+ (4 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -3.2% · EV No +11.7%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Magallanes market context before kickoff

🔥 Steam fuerte on Magallanes

Odds move
3.75 → 5.75 (↑ +53.3%)
Market breadth
4/5
Steam score
91 (A+)
Current status
Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo

  1. Predicción generada
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
1.51
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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          "validation_label": "Warning"
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          "follow_up": "",
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            "The market materially disagrees with the model on Palestino (pricing gap 14.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
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          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
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            "market_prob_pct": 25.23,
            "side": "draw"
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          {
            "edge_pp": 10.02,
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            "side": "away"
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        ],
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        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
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        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
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          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Magallanes, Market \u2192 Palestino, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
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        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
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      "market_overview": {
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        "steam_score": 14,
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        "steam_tier": "C"
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      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 14.4,
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        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
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          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2336,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2336.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Magallanes",
      "country_code": "CL",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
      "country_name": "Chile",
      "fixture_id": 1544440,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Chile",
      "home_team_id": 2318,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2318.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Palestino",
      "league_country": "Chile",
      "league_id": 267,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/267.webp",
      "league_name": "Copa Chile",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-20 16:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Santiago de Chile",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2548,
            "best_odd": 3.2,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0256,
            "ev": -0.0224,
            "implied_prob": 0.2799,
            "model_prob": 0.3803,
            "p_final": 0.3055
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2804,
            "best_odd": 3.55,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0122,
            "ev": -0.0608,
            "implied_prob": 0.2523,
            "model_prob": 0.2959,
            "p_final": 0.2646
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4704,
            "best_odd": 1.915,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0677,
            "ev": -0.234,
            "implied_prob": 0.4678,
            "model_prob": 0.3237,
            "p_final": 0.4
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.5,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.78,
          "edge_no": 0.0557,
          "edge_yes": -0.0557,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.14,
          "ev_yes": -0.0317,
          "implied_no": 0.4003,
          "implied_yes": 0.5997,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.65,
          "best_under_odd": 2.45,
          "edge_over": -0.1139,
          "edge_under": 0.1139,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2047,
          "ev_under": 0.2691,
          "implied_over": 0.5959,
          "implied_under": 0.4041,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2691,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2959,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.12
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0256,
          "ev": -0.0224,
          "implied_prob": 0.2799,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3803,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Magallanes"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0557,
          "ev": 0.14,
          "implied_prob": 0.4003,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1139,
          "ev": 0.2691,
          "implied_prob": 0.4041,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1544440,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2691,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3803,
        "draw": 0.2959,
        "home": 0.3237
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.14,
        "implied_prob": 0.4003,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.456,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.14,
          "implied_prob": 0.4003,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Magallanes",
        "home": "Palestino"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.097576,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2691,
        "implied_prob": 0.4041,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1544440,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-19T03:31:30.452555+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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