Predicciones / Fútbol / Denmark. 3. Division / Hørsholm-Usserød vs Næsby

Hørsholm-Usserød vs Næsby Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 13, 2026 - 12:00
1.58
1.40
40% 27% 32%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Tenga cuidado

Favorito
Hørsholm-Usserød Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
40.4%
Probabilidad de mercado
30.0%
Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia

Resumen:

Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Débil
Validación
Advertencia
Mayor brecha
Næsby -14.5 pp
Amplitud
7/7
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.

Evaluación de mercado

El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Næsby que la estimación justa actual.

Sin embargo, Hørsholm-Usserød ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.

La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Hørsholm-Usserød.

  • Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
  • El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Hørsholm-Usserød 40.36% 29.98% +10.4 pp
Empate 27.21% 23.1% +4.1 pp
Næsby 32.43% 46.92% -14.5 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Valor posible en 1X2: Hørsholm-Usserød (+1.4% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Valor posible: BTTS No (+16.1% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +25%+ Modelo 42.8%
No es un resultado dominante (la probabilidad del modelo es inferior al 50% en este tramo).
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Mejor valor (+EV)
61.3% · No 38.7%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -14.2% · EV No +16.1%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
1X2 Tendencia
Hørsholm-Usserød · Probabilidad del modelo 40.3%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 30.0%
EV línea de consenso: +1.4%
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 11.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
  • Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -19.9% · EV inferior +25%+ (6 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -14.2% · EV No +16.1%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Hørsholm-Usserød market context before kickoff

⚠️ Mercado volátil on Hørsholm-Usserød

Odds move
3.00 → 3.00 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
7/7
Steam score
30 (C)
Current status
Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.

Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo

  1. Pronóstico generado
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
1.91
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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          "outcome": "over"
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          "market_prob": 31.45,
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          "outcome": "under"
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          "edge_pp": -7.07,
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 68.37,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
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          "edge_pp": 7.07,
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          "market_prob": 31.63,
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          "outcome": "no"
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        "edge_pp": -14.49,
        "fair_prob_pct": 32.43,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "N\u00e6sby",
        "market_prob_pct": 46.92,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
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        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
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          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 14.49,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 30.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and N\u00e6sby remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -14.49,
        "hero_label": "N\u00e6sby",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about N\u00e6sby than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about N\u00e6sby than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors N\u00e6sby more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 14.49,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.9 pp (at 40.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 10.38,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.36,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.98,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.11,
            "fair_prob_pct": 27.21,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.1,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -14.49,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.43,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "N\u00e6sby",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.92,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers N\u00e6sby (30.0%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d, Market \u2192 N\u00e6sby, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
        "entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
        "entry_odds": 1.91,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/7",
        "current_odds": 3.0,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "pick_team": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 14.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 8635,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8635.webp",
      "away_team_name": "N\u00e6sby",
      "country_code": "DK",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/dk.svg",
      "country_name": "Denmark",
      "fixture_id": 1540538,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Denmark",
      "home_team_id": 11507,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11507.webp",
      "home_team_name": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
      "league_country": "Denmark",
      "league_id": 862,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/862.webp",
      "league_name": "3. Division",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Rungsted Kyst",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.47,
            "best_odd": 1.91,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0679,
            "ev": -0.2334,
            "implied_prob": 0.4692,
            "model_prob": 0.3248,
            "p_final": 0.4014
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2816,
            "best_odd": 3.88,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0115,
            "ev": -0.0591,
            "implied_prob": 0.231,
            "model_prob": 0.2718,
            "p_final": 0.2425
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3801,
            "best_odd": 2.99,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0394,
            "ev": 0.014,
            "implied_prob": 0.2998,
            "model_prob": 0.4034,
            "p_final": 0.3391
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 3.0,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.4,
          "edge_no": 0.0707,
          "edge_yes": -0.0707,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.161,
          "ev_yes": -0.1418,
          "implied_no": 0.3163,
          "implied_yes": 0.6837,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.4,
          "best_under_odd": 3.2,
          "edge_over": -0.1135,
          "edge_under": 0.1135,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1992,
          "ev_under": 0.3696,
          "implied_over": 0.6855,
          "implied_under": 0.3145,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.98,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3696,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.613,
          "draw_prob": 0.2718,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4034,
          "over_prob": 0.572,
          "total_xg": 2.98,
          "under_prob": 0.428,
          "xg_diff": 0.18
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0394,
          "ev": 0.014,
          "implied_prob": 0.2998,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4034,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0707,
          "ev": 0.161,
          "implied_prob": 0.3163,
          "model_prob": 0.387,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1135,
          "ev": 0.3696,
          "implied_prob": 0.3145,
          "model_prob": 0.428,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1540538,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3696,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3248,
        "draw": 0.2718,
        "home": 0.4034
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "N\u00e6sby",
        "home": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.150279,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3696,
        "implied_prob": 0.3145,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.428,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1540538,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:21:47.641984+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Predicciones
3. Division 3. DivisionClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Nykobing FC 22 17 4 1 55
2 FA 2000 22 13 3 6 42
3 Næsby 22 11 3 8 36
4 Brønshøj 22 9 5 8 32
5 Vanløse 22 9 4 9 31
6 Hørsholm-Usserød 22 8 5 9 29
7 Frem 22 8 4 10 28
8 Holbæk B&I 22 9 5 8 26
9 Vejgaard B 22 7 5 10 26
10 Sundby 22 7 3 12 24
11 Odder 22 6 3 13 21
12 Lyseng 22 5 2 15 17
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Nykobing FC 22 53 17 +36 55
2 Holbæk B&I 22 43 33 +10 26
3 Næsby 22 42 39 +3 36
4 Hørsholm-Usserød 22 38 38 0 29
5 Brønshøj 22 34 38 -4 32
6 FA 2000 22 33 23 +10 42
7 Sundby 22 32 39 -7 24
8 Vanløse 22 30 27 +3 31
9 Vejgaard B 22 30 46 -16 26
10 Odder 22 24 33 -9 21
11 Frem 22 22 24 -2 28
12 Lyseng 22 14 38 -24 17