AI correctly predicted the Suecia win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Suecia Suecia ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rumanía | 28.6% | 22.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.9% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Suecia | 47.8% | 52.6% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Rumanía's win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Suecia win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Rumanía.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Suecia more conservatively (41.7% vs model 47.8%, 6.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Suecia win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rumanía 28.6% · Draw 23.6% · Suecia 47.8%
- xG · Rumanía 1.81 — Suecia 1.98
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:25 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Rumanía 3.90 · Draw 3.80 · Suecia 1.85
- Implied 1X2 · Rumanía 24.2% · Draw 24.8% · Suecia 51.0%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:41 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Rumanía 4.20 · Draw 3.80 · Suecia 1.80
- Implied 1X2 · Rumanía 22.5% · Draw 24.9% · Suecia 52.6%
- Bookmaker · bet365 us
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Suecia win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
69/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Suecia win · Rumanía 0–1 Suecia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bcf90eb91226b2e5f12ce33d256378f8025af55a28a8c4fbbe3274a03490a6e2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.4776,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2358,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2865,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.98,
"away_win_prob": 0.4776,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4776,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.269,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.731,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2358,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2358,
"fair_odds_away": 2.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.09,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.24,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.24,
"fair_odds_home": 3.49,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.49,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.81,
"home_win_prob": 0.2865,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2865,
"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Suecia",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Suecia"
},
"away_xg": 1.98,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Suecia",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0476,
"edge_gap": 0.1918,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 47.8,
"draw": 23.6,
"home": 28.6
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"odd": 1.8
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.8,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"display_market": "Suecia Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.9,
"market_odds": 1.8,
"model_odds": 2.09,
"overround": 5.7,
"prob_edge": -7.7,
"value_pct": -13.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 86.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 83.6,
"no_prob": 26.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.98,
"home_expected": 1.81,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ruman\u00eda or Draw",
"prob": 52.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ruman\u00eda or Suecia",
"prob": 76.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Suecia",
"prob": 71.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ruman\u00eda or Suecia",
"pick_prob": 76.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 47.8,
"draw_pct": 23.6,
"home_pct": 28.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Suecia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "bet365 us",
"edge": 20.1,
"implied_prob": 23.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ruman\u00eda Win",
"model_prob": 28.6,
"odds": 4.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Suecia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 52.57,
"draw": 24.9,
"home": 22.53
},
"closing_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 18:41:08",
"closing_source": "oddsportal",
"early_bookmaker": "bet365 us",
"early_capture": "PRE20",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 18:25:53",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ruman\u00eda",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.66,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.53,
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.9,
"gap_pp": -1.34,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.57,
"gap_pp": -4.76,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 47.81
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.2,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.53,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.66,
"implied_early_pct": 24.19,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.8,
"early": 3.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.08,
"implied_early_pct": 24.82,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.58,
"implied_early_pct": 50.99,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.0,
"ev": -0.3317,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.25,
"market_prob": 0.1212,
"market_prob_pct": 12.1,
"model_prob": 0.081,
"model_prob_pct": 8.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.81,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0271,
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"market_prob": 0.6005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6276
},
"p_final": 0.6276,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1607,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0021,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1826,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.3,
"text": "+18.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.336,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -33.6,
"text": "-33.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1826,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10314.34,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0269,
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"market_prob": 0.5943,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.731,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.4057,
"model_prob": 0.269,
"p_final": 0.3862
},
"p_final": 0.6212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1404,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.5943,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"p_final": 0.6212
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.341,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.1,
"text": "-34.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1477,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.8,
"text": "+14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1477,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.9,
"sort_key": 10132.93,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1015,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0072,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Suecia",
"sort_key": 1798.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.12,
"hero_label": "Ruman\u00eda",
"market_prob_pct": 52.6,
"market_team": "Suecia",
"model_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_team": "Suecia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Suecia at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Suecia as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Suecia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1015,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.12,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.12,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.98,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 47.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.81,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.98,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.81 \u00b7 Away xG 1.98 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +47%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Suecia at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Suecia as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Suecia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1015,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ruman\u00eda 1.81 xG vs Suecia 1.98 \u2192 Suecia 47.8%",
"Market: Suecia ~52.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Suecia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob": 28.65,
"label": "Ruman\u00eda",
"market_prob": 22.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.32,
"fair_prob": 23.58,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob": 47.76,
"label": "Suecia",
"market_prob": 52.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.89,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.79,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.39,
"fair_prob": 73.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.39,
"fair_prob": 26.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ruman\u00eda",
"market_prob_pct": 22.53,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Ruman\u00eda\u0027s win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.12,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Suecia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.8,
"model_prob_pct": 47.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Suecia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 76,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ruman\u00eda 1.81 xG vs Suecia 1.98 \u2192 Suecia 47.8%",
"Market: Suecia ~52.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +10.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Suecia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.12,
"hero_label": "Ruman\u00eda",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ruman\u00eda.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ruman\u00eda.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Ruman\u00eda.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.12,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.1 pp (at 47.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.1,
"max_prob_pct": 47.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Ruman\u00eda",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.1,
"lead": "The model rates Ruman\u00eda considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.12,
"edge_pp": 6.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ruman\u00eda",
"market_prob_pct": 22.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.32,
"edge_pp": -1.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.9,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.81,
"edge_pp": -4.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.76,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Suecia",
"market_prob_pct": 52.57,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Suecia (52.6%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.8%, 8/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Suecia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.81,
"closing_odds": 4.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.81,
"entry_odds": 4.2,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 42m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (10.8%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.30",
"4.00",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.25 \u2192 3.41 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 42m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.41"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
4.3,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sweden",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Suecia",
"away_team_id": 5,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5.webp",
"away_team_name": "Suecia",
"away_team_public_id": "2gOtIvPgul7dU6",
"away_team_slug": "sweden",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528949,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ruman\u00eda",
"home_team_display_name": "Ruman\u00eda",
"home_team_id": 774,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/774.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ruman\u00eda",
"home_team_public_id": "4t880qcF41CCbm",
"home_team_slug": "romania",
"ht.home_team_slug": "romania",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4wRXWTLvoOK6X4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Bucharest",
"venue_name": "Arena Na\u021bional\u0103"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5571,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5257,
"draw": 0.249,
"home": 0.2253
},
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"p_final": 0.4992
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.294,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.249,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5257,
"draw": 0.249,
"home": 0.2253
},
"model_prob": 0.2356,
"p_final": 0.2451
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1817,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0072,
"implied_prob": 0.2253,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5257,
"draw": 0.249,
"home": 0.2253
},
"model_prob": 0.2863,
"p_final": 0.2364
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0775,
"ev": -0.1395,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.4781
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.2356
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": 0.0482,
"ev": 0.2024,
"implied_prob": 0.2381,
"model_prob": 0.2863
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1431,
"alpha_yes": 0.1967,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1339,
"edge_yes": 0.1339,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.341,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"ev_yes": 0.1477,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.031,
"implied_no": 0.4029,
"implied_yes": 0.5971,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.4057,
"model_prob": 0.269,
"p_final": 0.3862
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.5943,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"p_final": 0.6212
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3862,
"p_final_yes": 0.6212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2094,
"alpha_under": 0.1526,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.39,
"edge_over": 0.1289,
"edge_under": -0.1279,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1826,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0021,
"ev_under": -0.336,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0921,
"implied_over": 0.6011,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6005,
"implied_under": 0.3989,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3995,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6276
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3799
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6276,
"p_final_under": 0.3799,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1826,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1826,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2024,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Suecia at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Suecia as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Suecia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1015,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 46.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.731,
"draw_prob": 0.2356,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4781,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Suecia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0269,
"market_prob": 0.5943,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.731,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.4057,
"model_prob": 0.269,
"p_final": 0.3862
},
"p_final": 0.6212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.031,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.5943,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"p_final": 0.6212
}
},
"edge": 0.1339,
"ev": 0.1477,
"implied_prob": 0.5971,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0271,
"market_prob": 0.6005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": 0.0271,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.6005,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6276
},
"p_final": 0.6276,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0021,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.3995,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3799
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1289,
"ev": 0.1826,
"implied_prob": 0.6011,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528949,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1826,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4781,
"draw": 0.2356,
"home": 0.2863
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1477,
"implied_prob": 0.5971,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.731,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1477,
"implied_prob": 0.5971,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.731,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Suecia",
"home": "Ruman\u00eda"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.166623,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1826,
"implied_prob": 0.6011,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1015,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4781,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5555555555555556,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528949,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:11:36.338200+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Rumanía & Suecia!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Bélgica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Italia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Turquía | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bélgica | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Italia | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Francia | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Turquía | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 2 | Bélgica | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 3 | Italia | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 4 | Turquía | 3 | — | — | — | 0 |
