The model missed the final outcome (Suiza win 3–0).
The model had projected Macedonia del Norte at 38.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Macedonia del Norte Suiza ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Suiza win 3–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Suiza 1.12 — Macedonia del Norte 1.29
-
Oct 06, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Suiza win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Suiza win · Suiza 3–0 Macedonia del Norte
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
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{
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},
{
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"label": "Suiza or Macedonia del Norte",
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},
{
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"label": "Draw or Macedonia del Norte",
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"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.41,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 3.0,
"over_prob": 43.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
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{
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{
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{
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"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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{
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Macedonia del Norte",
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_team": "Macedonia del Norte",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 34.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 34.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte)."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.10614900000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution_confidence": 71,
"extreme_disagreement": true,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macedonia del Norte at 38.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 3.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macedonia del Norte as the value side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Draw, but the model still strongly favours Macedonia del Norte.",
"model_conflict_detail": {
"causes": [
"Missing information",
"Lineup uncertainty",
"Market efficiency",
"Model calibration error"
],
"gap_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"market_prob_pct": 3.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_team": "Macedonia del Norte",
"reason": "Extreme disagreement between model and market pricing.",
"status": "Observation Only"
},
"model_lean": "Macedonia del Norte",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +79.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +79.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +79.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": false,
"value": "yes"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+79.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "conflict",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"consensus_ev_display": "+79.5%",
"consensus_odds": 24.5,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.3872,
"raw_edge_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 34.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.04081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": 8.4864,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+848.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -4.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"bet_status": "model_conflict",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 68,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.29,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"label": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 34.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 34.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte)."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.10614900000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution_confidence": 71,
"extreme_disagreement": true,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macedonia del Norte at 38.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 3.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macedonia del Norte as the value side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Draw, but the model still strongly favours Macedonia del Norte.",
"model_conflict_detail": {
"causes": [
"Missing information",
"Lineup uncertainty",
"Market efficiency",
"Model calibration error"
],
"gap_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"market_prob_pct": 3.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_team": "Macedonia del Norte",
"reason": "Extreme disagreement between model and market pricing.",
"status": "Observation Only"
},
"model_lean": "Macedonia del Norte",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +79.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +79.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +79.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": false,
"value": "yes"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+79.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "conflict",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"consensus_ev_display": "+79.5%",
"consensus_odds": 24.5,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.3872,
"raw_edge_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 34.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.04081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": 8.4864,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+848.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -4.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"tier": "conflict"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Suiza 1.12 xG vs Macedonia del Norte 1.29 \u2192 Macedonia del Norte 38.7%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Macedonia del Norte with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.47,
"label": "Suiza",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.84,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.69,
"label": "Macedonia del Norte",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -23.36,
"fair_prob": 43.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 23.36,
"fair_prob": 56.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.88,
"fair_prob": 50.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 34.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.88,
"fair_prob": 49.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 65.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Macedonia del Norte",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 3.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 34.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"label": "Very low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_very_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 68,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte). This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"label": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Suiza 1.12 xG vs Macedonia del Norte 1.29 \u2192 Macedonia del Norte 38.7%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Macedonia del Norte with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.8 pp (at 38.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.8,
"max_prob_pct": 38.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.47,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Suiza",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Macedonia del Norte",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Macedonia del Norte (38.7%).",
"However, Draw has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Macedonia del Norte \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 10.0,
"entry_odds": 10.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 10.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (11.1%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"10.00",
"9.50",
"9.00"
],
"display": "10.50 \u2192 7.50 \u2192 10.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 55m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "10.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "10.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
9.0,
10.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "9.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "9.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "10.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "10.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 9.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 10.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 9.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 10.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 9.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fyr-macedonia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Macedonia del Norte",
"away_team_id": 1105,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1105.webp",
"away_team_name": "Macedonia del Norte",
"away_team_public_id": "398eZfnyXrt2id",
"away_team_slug": "fyr-macedonia",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1545655,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Suiza",
"home_team_display_name": "Suiza",
"home_team_id": 15,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15.webp",
"home_team_name": "Suiza",
"home_team_public_id": "5Lwjv2rk8O28Kl",
"home_team_slug": "switzerland",
"ht.home_team_slug": "switzerland",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-06 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4OXAiYr9QyZ6fx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Lucerne",
"venue_name": "Swissporarena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"best_odd": 24.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0349,
"ev": 0.7948,
"implied_prob": 0.0384,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0384,
"draw": 0.099,
"home": 0.8626
},
"model_prob": 0.3872,
"p_final": 0.0733
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1372,
"best_odd": 9.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.2131,
"implied_prob": 0.099,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0384,
"draw": 0.099,
"home": 0.8626
},
"model_prob": 0.3083,
"p_final": 0.1277
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 1.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.1674,
"ev": -0.2422,
"implied_prob": 0.8626,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.0384,
"draw": 0.099,
"home": 0.8626
},
"model_prob": 0.3045,
"p_final": 0.6952
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 30.0,
"edge": 0.3538,
"ev": 10.6149,
"implied_prob": 0.0333,
"model_prob": 0.3872
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 10.5,
"edge": 0.2131,
"ev": 2.2371,
"implied_prob": 0.0952,
"model_prob": 0.3083
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.11,
"edge": -0.5964,
"ev": -0.662,
"implied_prob": 0.9009,
"model_prob": 0.3045
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1874,
"alpha_yes": 0.1363,
"best_no_odd": 1.5,
"best_yes_odd": 2.88,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1588,
"edge_yes": 0.1588,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2575,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1197,
"ev_yes": 0.4544,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0177,
"implied_no": 0.6538,
"implied_yes": 0.3462,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1874,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.0303,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.6569,
"model_prob": 0.495,
"p_final": 0.6266
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1363,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.3431,
"model_prob": 0.505,
"p_final": 0.3652
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.6266,
"p_final_yes": 0.3652,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1608,
"alpha_under": 0.1169,
"best_over_odd": 1.45,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.78,
"edge_over": -0.2336,
"edge_under": 0.2336,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3721,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1255,
"ev_under": 0.633,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0026,
"implied_over": 0.6666,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6667,
"implied_under": 0.3334,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3333,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1608,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0376,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.433,
"p_final": 0.6291
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1169,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0273,
"ev": 0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.567,
"p_final": 0.3607
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6291,
"p_final_under": 0.3607,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_observation_only",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_model_conflict",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.41,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.633,
"implied_prob": 0.3334,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.567,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "under",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"best_outlier_ev": 10.6149,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7948,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "model_conflict",
"final_decision": {
"action": "model_conflict",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "extreme",
"probability_gap_pp": 34.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte)."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.10614900000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "MODEL_CONFLICT",
"execution_confidence": 71,
"extreme_disagreement": true,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macedonia del Norte at 38.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 3.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macedonia del Norte as the value side (38.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI\u2013Market Conflict - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"icon": "\u26a0",
"label": "Observation Only",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Draw, but the model still strongly favours Macedonia del Norte.",
"model_conflict_detail": {
"causes": [
"Missing information",
"Lineup uncertainty",
"Market efficiency",
"Model calibration error"
],
"gap_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 34.9,
"market_prob_pct": 3.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_team": "Macedonia del Norte",
"reason": "Extreme disagreement between model and market pricing.",
"status": "Observation Only"
},
"model_lean": "Macedonia del Norte",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +79.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme model\u2013market disagreement",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +79.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +79.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": false,
"value": "yes"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+79.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macedonia del Norte).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Extreme model\u2013market disagreement"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Large statistical disagreement between the AI model and market pricing \u2014 observation only, not a Primary bet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "conflict",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"consensus_ev_display": "+79.5%",
"consensus_odds": 24.5,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.3872,
"raw_edge_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 34.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.04081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": 8.4864,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+848.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -4.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.505,
"draw_prob": 0.3083,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3872,
"over_prob": 0.433,
"total_xg": 2.41,
"under_prob": 0.567,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "model_market_conflict",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2131,
"implied_prob": 0.099,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3083,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 24.5,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0349,
"ev": 0.7948,
"implied_prob": 0.0384,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3872,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Macedonia del Norte"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1363,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0221,
"market_prob": 0.3431,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.505,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1874,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.0303,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.6569,
"model_prob": 0.495,
"p_final": 0.6266
},
"p_final": 0.3652,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0177,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1363,
"best_odd": 2.69,
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.78,
"edge": 0.0273,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.3607,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0026,
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},
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},
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}
},
"match_id": 1545655,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7948,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3872,
"draw": 0.3083,
"home": 0.3045
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.633,
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "btts",
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"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Macedonia del Norte",
"home": "Suiza"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7948,
"implied_prob": 0.0384,
"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Macedonia del Norte",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 4,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.7948,
"consensus_ev_display": "+79.5%",
"consensus_odds": 24.5,
"disagreement_label": "Extreme",
"disagreement_level": "extreme",
"implied_prob": 0.0384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": true,
"model_prob": 0.3872,
"raw_edge_display": "+34.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 34.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.04081632653061224,
"raw_signal_ev": 8.4864,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+848.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1545655,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-06T01:27:02.654041+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
