Sí 54.3% · No 45.7%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -21.8% · EV No +25%+
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Brisbane City Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 39.9%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 52.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Brisbane City, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (52.5% vs modelo 39.9%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Gold Coast United ↑ +8.8% 3.4 → 3.7
- Tipo de movimiento
- ⚡ Movimiento liderado por sharp
- Puntuación de vapor
- 25C
Limited conviction - Amplitud del mercado
- 1/10
- Fase
- Reajuste agresivo
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
- validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Mayor movimiento del día
Camino de probabilidades — Gold Coast United
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 8h
Abierto
3.75
Bajo/Alto
3.23
Actual
3.70
Narrativa de mercado
Bet365 lideró el repricing en Gold Coast United (8.8%) — casa sharp movió antes del seguimiento más amplio.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Brisbane City -12.6 pp
- Amplitud
- 1/10
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se alargaron ↑ +8.8%.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Brisbane City que la estimación justa actual.
Sin embargo, Gold Coast United ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 8.8%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte. La confirmación sigue siendo limitada (1/10 libros), lo que sugiere un interés temprano en lugar de un movimiento amplio del mercado.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast United | 30.58% | 25.59% | +5.0 pp |
| Empate | 29.48% | 21.89% | +7.6 pp |
| Brisbane City | 39.94% | 52.52% | -12.6 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Brisbane City · Probabilidad del modelo 40.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 52.5%
EV línea de consenso: -19.7%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -3.6% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -32.5% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -21.8% · EV No +25%+
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -21.8% · EV No +25%+
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.73
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Gold Coast United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/10",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Gold Coast United",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Gold Coast United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10211,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10211.webp",
"away_team_name": "Brisbane City",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1524033,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_id": 10216,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10216.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gold Coast United",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_id": 482,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/482.webp",
"league_name": "Queensland NPL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 05:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4871,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0611,
"ev": -0.1972,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.464
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1773,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.2189,
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2324
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2777,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.2559,
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2697
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"edge_no": 0.1171,
"edge_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2887,
"ev_yes": -0.2181,
"implied_no": 0.3399,
"implied_yes": 0.6601,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 2.89,
"edge_over": -0.1899,
"edge_under": 0.1899,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_under": 0.497,
"implied_over": 0.6719,
"implied_under": 0.3281,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.497,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0611,
"ev": -0.1972,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Brisbane City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1171,
"ev": 0.2887,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1899,
"ev": 0.497,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1524033,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.497,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2887,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2887,
"implied_prob": 0.3399,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Brisbane City",
"home": "Gold Coast United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.180212,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.497,
"implied_prob": 0.3281,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1524033,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T13:07:25.879588+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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