Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No -3.1%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de predicción
Predicción confiable
- Favorito
- Wollongong Wolves Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.5%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 46.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Wollongong Wolves, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (46.5% vs modelo 37.5%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Wollongong Wolves -8.9 pp
- Amplitud
- 2/2
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wollongong Wolves | 37.54% | 46.46% | -8.9 pp |
| Empate | 29.61% | 25.71% | +3.9 pp |
| Sydney FC U23 | 32.85% | 27.83% | +5.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+6.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
Convicción moderada (5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Wollongong Wolves · Probabilidad del modelo 37.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 46.5%
EV línea de consenso: -17.8%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -4.1% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.0/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.0 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -15.7% ·
EV inferior +6.2%
(2 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No -3.1%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No -3.1%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Predicción generada
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.97
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"match": {
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"league_id": 192,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/192.webp",
"league_name": "New South Wales NPL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-21 05:00:00",
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sydney",
"venue_name": "Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
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"away": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.014,
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},
"draw": {
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"calibration": {
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"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.268
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.52,
"best_odd": 1.965,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0462,
"ev": -0.178,
"implied_prob": 0.4646,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4183
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.13,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"edge_no": 0.0153,
"edge_yes": -0.0153,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0309,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"implied_no": 0.4397,
"implied_yes": 0.5603,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0566,
"edge_under": 0.0566,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"implied_over": 0.5386,
"implied_under": 0.4614,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0462,
"ev": -0.178,
"implied_prob": 0.4646,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wollongong Wolves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.4397,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0566,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4614,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1517569,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sydney FC U23",
"home": "Wollongong Wolves"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.019752,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4614,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1517569,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T07:43:19.268626+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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