Pronóstico confiable
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Sydney United, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (49.5% vs modelo 39.7%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manly United | 31.42% | 24.47% | +7.0 pp |
| Empate | 28.87% | 25.98% | +2.9 pp |
| Sydney United | 39.71% | 49.55% | -9.8 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
No hay apuestas predeterminadas en umbrales estándar; use inclinaciones solo para contexto.
Manly United market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Manly United
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2889,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3967,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0285,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.523,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.562,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0509,
"ev": -0.1869,
"implied_prob": 0.4964,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3967,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sydney United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.039,
"ev": 0.0285,
"implied_prob": 0.523,
"model_prob": 0.562,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": 0.0019,
"implied_prob": 0.4942,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1517568,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0285,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3967,
"draw": 0.2889,
"home": 0.3144
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sydney United",
"home": "Manly United"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1517568,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:29:02.431528+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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