FS Jelgava · Probabilidad del modelo 36.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 18.7%
EV línea de consenso: +3.2%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- FS Jelgava Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 18.7%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Auda -24.6 pp
- Amplitud
- 8/8
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere sustancialmente de los precios actuales del mercado. Pueden ocurrir grandes divergencias cuando los datos de calificación son incompletos, las estimaciones de la fuerza del equipo son inciertas o el mercado incorpora información que no está presente en el modelo. Interprete con precaución.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auda | 33.77% | 58.38% | -24.6 pp |
| Empate | 29.64% | 22.97% | +6.7 pp |
| FS Jelgava | 36.59% | 18.66% | +17.9 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Se requiere validación del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren materialmente (24.6 puntos porcentuales). Se recomienda una validación adicional antes de interpretar esta comparación.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No -3.5%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -21.9% ·
EV inferior +19.1%
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No -3.5%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.0% · EV No -3.5%
Auda market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Auda
- Odds move
- 1.55 → 1.55 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 8/8
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.55
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"headline": "Balanced match",
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"paragraphs": [],
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"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
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"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
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"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
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},
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
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{
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{
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],
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"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
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"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Auda (18.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FS Jelgava, Market \u2192 Auda, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
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"stages": [
{
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{
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"id": "market_detected",
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{
"detail": "",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
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"current_odds": 1.55,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
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"pick_team": "Auda",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Auda",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
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"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 18834,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18834.webp",
"away_team_name": "FS Jelgava",
"country_code": "LV",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lv.svg",
"country_name": "Latvia",
"fixture_id": 1515858,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Latvia",
"home_team_id": 4135,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4135.webp",
"home_team_name": "Auda",
"league_country": "Latvia",
"league_id": 365,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/365.webp",
"league_name": "Virsliga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Riga",
"venue_name": "Skonto stadions"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"away": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"best_odd": 4.85,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": 0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.1866,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2128
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2699,
"best_odd": 3.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0241,
"implied_prob": 0.2297,
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2477
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3784,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0932,
"ev": -0.2396,
"implied_prob": 0.5838,
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4906
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"edge_no": 0.0126,
"edge_yes": -0.0126,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"implied_no": 0.4424,
"implied_yes": 0.5576,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"edge_over": -0.0963,
"edge_under": 0.0963,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"implied_over": 0.5783,
"implied_under": 0.4217,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": 0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.1866,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FS Jelgava"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.4424,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0963,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4217,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1515858,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FS Jelgava",
"home": "Auda"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4217,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1515858,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:11:46.856167+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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