Predicciones / Fútbol / Iceland. 1. Deild / Leiknir R. vs Vestri

Leiknir R. vs Vestri Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 13, 2026 - 14:00
1.31
1.29
36% 30% 35%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
Leiknir R. Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
35.6%
Probabilidad de mercado
38.5%
Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar

Resumen:

Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar
Mayor brecha
Empate +3.6 pp
Amplitud
3/11
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

Evaluación de mercado

El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.

  • Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Leiknir R. 35.64% 38.51% -2.9 pp
Empate 29.65% 26.01% +3.6 pp
Vestri 34.7% 35.48% -0.8 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
  • Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Valor posible: BTTS No (+19.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +25%+ Modelo 51.8%
Secundaria (valor equilibrado): BTTS No (vehículo eléctrico +19.7%) — 45.5% Modelo
EV más bajo que el primario, pero con mayor probabilidad de modelo (más “estable” cuando se muestra).
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Mejor valor (+EV)
54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -18.2% · EV No +19.7%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
1X2 Poco valor
Leiknir R. · Probabilidad del modelo 35.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 38.5%
EV línea de consenso: -12.8%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -6.3% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.6%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
  • Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -24.3% · EV inferior +25%+ (10 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -18.2% · EV No +19.7%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado

  1. Pronóstico generado
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
3.46
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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            "id": "closing_recorded",
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      "market_move_intelligence": {
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      "premium_teaser": {
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 4165,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4165.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Vestri",
      "country_code": "IS",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
      "country_name": "Iceland",
      "fixture_id": 1514205,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Iceland",
      "home_team_id": 2114,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2114.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Leiknir R.",
      "league_country": "Iceland",
      "league_id": 165,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/165.webp",
      "league_name": "1. Deild",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4449,
            "best_odd": 2.54,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0033,
            "ev": -0.1073,
            "implied_prob": 0.3548,
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.3515
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2835,
            "best_odd": 3.465,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0104,
            "ev": -0.0628,
            "implied_prob": 0.2601,
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.2705
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4303,
            "best_odd": 2.34,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0126,
            "ev": -0.1282,
            "implied_prob": 0.3851,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.3726
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.63,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": 0.0922,
          "edge_yes": -0.0922,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1966,
          "ev_yes": -0.1825,
          "implied_no": 0.3628,
          "implied_yes": 0.6372,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.57,
          "best_under_odd": 2.55,
          "edge_over": -0.1277,
          "edge_under": 0.1277,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2433,
          "ev_under": 0.3209,
          "implied_over": 0.6097,
          "implied_under": 0.3903,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2968,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0126,
          "ev": -0.1282,
          "implied_prob": 0.3851,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Leiknir R."
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0922,
          "ev": 0.1966,
          "implied_prob": 0.3628,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1277,
          "ev": 0.3209,
          "implied_prob": 0.3903,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1514205,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3473,
        "draw": 0.2968,
        "home": 0.3559
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1966,
        "implied_prob": 0.3628,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1966,
          "implied_prob": 0.3628,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Vestri",
        "home": "Leiknir R."
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.116358,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3209,
        "implied_prob": 0.3903,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1514205,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T08:45:52.349535+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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