Sí 53.7% · No 46.3%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -3.3% · EV No -5.1%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Dila Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 43.4%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 45.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Empate ↓ -3.0% 3.3 → 3.2
- Tipo de movimiento
- ⚠️ Mercado volátil
- Puntuación de vapor
- 23C
Limited conviction - Amplitud del mercado
- 4/10
- Fase
- Volátil
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
Movimiento liderado por sharp: Betfair - validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Movimiento con mayor consenso
Camino de probabilidades — Empate
📈 Reajuste activo durante 3h 59m
Abierto
3.30
Bajo/Alto
2.90
Actual
3.20
Narrativa de mercado
Precios volátiles bidireccionales en Empate (oscilación 3.30 → 2.90 → 3.20) — neto 3.0% pero alta volatilidad intradía.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Dila -1.8 pp
- Amplitud
- 4/10
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se acortaron ↓ -3.0%.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, el interés de compra reciente ha estado en Empate, y las probabilidades se han reducido en 3.0%. La confirmación sigue siendo limitada (4/10 libros), lo que sugiere un interés temprano en lugar de un movimiento amplio del mercado.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Batumi | 27.5% | 26.23% | +1.3 pp |
| Empate | 29.15% | 28.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Dila | 43.35% | 45.16% | -1.8 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+3.6% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
Baja convicción (4/10): prefiera apuestas más pequeñas o saltee.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Mejor +EV (mercados seguidos)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Dila · Probabilidad del modelo 43.3%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 45.2%
EV línea de consenso: -12.0%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -8.6% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.3%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Ejecución: sin Primaria / alternativa a tamaño estándar — otros mercados pueden mostrar +EV en las tarjetas de abajo.
Mercado: puede haber una pequeña ineficiencia modelo–precio en líneas marginales o de alta varianza — no es apuesta por defecto; reduzca la apuesta si prueba.
(Técnico: al menos una línea seguida supera el umbral +EV a ≥2.0% en las mejores cuotas — no implica apuesta por defecto.)
Fuerza de la decisión: 4.0 / 10
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +3.6% ·
EV inferior -4.2%
(8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -3.3% · EV No -5.1%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -3.3% · EV No -5.1%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.0
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"note": "",
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"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Dila, Market \u2192 Dila, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
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],
"show": true,
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},
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"narrative_paragraphs": [
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"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
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"odds_path": {
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"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
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{
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{
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],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
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},
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"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/10",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3499,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3499.webp",
"away_team_name": "Dila",
"country_code": "GE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ge.svg",
"country_name": "Georgia",
"fixture_id": 1509138,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Georgia",
"home_team_id": 705,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/705.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dinamo Batumi",
"league_country": "Georgia",
"league_id": 327,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/327.webp",
"league_name": "Erovnuli Liga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Batumi",
"venue_name": "Adjarabet Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5835,
"best_odd": 1.995,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"p_final": 0.4409
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2974,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.286,
"model_prob": 0.2918,
"p_final": 0.2878
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2943,
"best_odd": 3.435,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.2623,
"model_prob": 0.275,
"p_final": 0.266
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": -0.0088,
"edge_yes": 0.0088,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0509,
"ev_yes": -0.0334,
"implied_no": 0.4718,
"implied_yes": 0.5282,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": 0.0032,
"edge_under": -0.0032,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_under": -0.0417,
"implied_over": 0.4788,
"implied_under": 0.5212,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
"draw_prob": 0.2918,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4333,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4788,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Dila"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0334,
"implied_prob": 0.5282,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4788,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1509138,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4333,
"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.275
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Dila",
"home": "Dinamo Batumi"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1509138,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:55:18.528418+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predicciones
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