Sí 56.5% · No 43.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -18.6% · EV No +20.5%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Thor Akureyri Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.0%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 35.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- IBV Vestmannaeyjar -4.1 pp
- Amplitud
- 11/11
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, Thor Akureyri ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Thor Akureyri.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 35.96% | 35.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Empate | 29.0% | 25.04% | +4.0 pp |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 35.04% | 39.16% | -4.1 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+20.5% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Thor Akureyri · Probabilidad del modelo 36.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 35.8%
EV línea de consenso: -7.8%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -3.9% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -24.1% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -18.6% · EV No +20.5%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -18.6% · EV No +20.5%
Thor Akureyri market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Thor Akureyri
- Odds move
- 2.50 → 2.50 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 11/11
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.35
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"match": {
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"league_country": "Iceland",
"league_id": 164,
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"league_name": "\u00darvalsdeild",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 17:00:00",
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Akureyri",
"venue_name": "Thorsvollur"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4224,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.3916,
"model_prob": 0.3507,
"p_final": 0.3743
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2823,
"best_odd": 3.675,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.039,
"implied_prob": 0.2504,
"model_prob": 0.2897,
"p_final": 0.2615
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.449,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.0781,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"model_prob": 0.3596,
"p_final": 0.3587
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.77,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"edge_no": 0.0879,
"edge_yes": -0.0879,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2049,
"ev_yes": -0.1864,
"implied_no": 0.3471,
"implied_yes": 0.6529,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": -0.1286,
"edge_under": 0.1286,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.241,
"ev_under": 0.3338,
"implied_over": 0.6346,
"implied_under": 0.3654,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3338,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.565,
"draw_prob": 0.2897,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3596,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0007,
"ev": -0.0781,
"implied_prob": 0.358,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3596,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Thor Akureyri"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0879,
"ev": 0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"model_prob": 0.435,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1286,
"ev": 0.3338,
"implied_prob": 0.3654,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1508780,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3338,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3507,
"draw": 0.2897,
"home": 0.3596
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.435,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.435,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "IBV Vestmannaeyjar",
"home": "Thor Akureyri"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.164897,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3338,
"implied_prob": 0.3654,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508780,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:21:05.386919+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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