Sí 46.8% · No 53.2%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -13.0% · EV No -1.6%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Al Hikma Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 45.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Al Hikma, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (45.8% vs modelo 36.6%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Al Hikma -9.2 pp
- Amplitud
- 7/7
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
Sin embargo, Reyady Abaseya ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Reyady Abaseya.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reyady Abaseya | 31.1% | 25.63% | +5.5 pp |
| Empate | 32.31% | 28.62% | +3.7 pp |
| Al Hikma | 36.6% | 45.75% | -9.2 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
No hay apuestas predeterminadas en umbrales estándar; use inclinaciones solo para contexto.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Borde delgado: Menos de 2.5 (+2.7% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
- Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Baja convicción (3.5/10): prefiera apuestas más pequeñas o saltee.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Mejor +EV (mercados seguidos)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Al Hikma · Probabilidad del modelo 36.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 45.8%
EV línea de consenso: -19.8%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -5.3% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 13.3%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Ejecución: sin Primaria / alternativa a tamaño estándar — otros mercados pueden mostrar +EV en las tarjetas de abajo.
Mercado: puede haber una pequeña ineficiencia modelo–precio en líneas marginales o de alta varianza — no es apuesta por defecto; reduzca la apuesta si prueba.
(Técnico: al menos una línea seguida supera el umbral +EV a ≥2.0% en las mejores cuotas — no implica apuesta por defecto.)
Fuerza de la decisión: 3.5 / 10
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Probabilidad de empate superior al 30% (−0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -15.3% ·
EV inferior +2.7%
(5 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -13.0% · EV No -1.6%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -13.0% · EV No -1.6%
Reyady Abaseya market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Reyady Abaseya
- Odds move
- 3.50 → 3.50 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 7/7
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.96
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"league_id": 390,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/390.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5181,
"best_odd": 1.955,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0471,
"ev": -0.1978,
"implied_prob": 0.4575,
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"p_final": 0.4104
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2836,
"best_odd": 3.125,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0104,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.2862,
"model_prob": 0.3228,
"p_final": 0.2966
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2755,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.2563,
"model_prob": 0.3107,
"p_final": 0.2713
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"edge_no": 0.0257,
"edge_yes": -0.0257,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0158,
"ev_yes": -0.1295,
"implied_no": 0.5063,
"implied_yes": 0.4937,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": -0.0508,
"edge_under": 0.0508,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.153,
"ev_under": 0.0271,
"implied_over": 0.4358,
"implied_under": 0.5642,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.23,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0271,
"confidence": 3.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 3.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.468,
"draw_prob": 0.3228,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3665,
"over_prob": 0.385,
"total_xg": 2.23,
"under_prob": 0.615,
"xg_diff": 0.11
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0271,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5642,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.615,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0471,
"ev": -0.1978,
"implied_prob": 0.4575,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Al Hikma"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": -0.0158,
"implied_prob": 0.5063,
"model_prob": 0.532,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0508,
"ev": 0.0271,
"implied_prob": 0.5642,
"model_prob": 0.615,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1508051,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0271,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3665,
"draw": 0.3228,
"home": 0.3107
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al Hikma",
"home": "Reyady Abaseya"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508051,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:34:25.304495+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Premier League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 41 |
| 2 | Jwaaya FC | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Al Nejmeh | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31 |
| 4 | Al Ahed | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 31 |
| 5 | Safa | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Sahel | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Al Hikma | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Reyady Abaseya | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
| 10 | Tadamon Sour | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 11 | Bourj | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing | 16 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar | 17 | 37 | 8 | +29 | 41 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 15 | 28 | 8 | +20 | 31 |
| 3 | Jwaaya FC | 16 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 32 |
| 4 | Al Ahed | 16 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 31 |
| 5 | Safa | 16 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 26 |
| 6 | Al Hikma | 15 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 20 |
| 7 | Shabab Al Sahel | 16 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | Reyady Abaseya | 17 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Tadamon Sour | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 10 | Al Mabarrah | 15 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 18 |
| 11 | Bourj | 11 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing | 16 | 4 | 50 | -46 | 1 |
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