AI correctly predicted the Vasalund win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Vasalund Vasalund ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gefle IF | 29.7% | 41.8% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.9% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Vasalund | 40.9% | 32.3% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Gefle IF's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Vasalund win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Gefle IF than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vasalund higher (53.0% vs model 40.9%, 12.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vasalund win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gefle IF 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Vasalund 41.0%
- xG · Gefle IF 1.18 — Vasalund 1.42
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gefle IF 2.19 · Draw 3.54 · Vasalund 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Gefle IF 41.8% · Draw 25.9% · Vasalund 32.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Gefle IF 2.19 · Draw 3.54 · Vasalund 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Gefle IF 41.8% · Draw 25.9% · Vasalund 32.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vasalund win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.19
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vasalund win · Gefle IF 0–1 Vasalund
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"alert_team": "Gefle IF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "steam",
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{
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],
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},
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasalund at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasalund as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasalund",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0109,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1592,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.11,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"steam_team": "Gefle IF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.159,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasalund at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasalund as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasalund",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0109,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1592,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gefle IF 1.18 xG vs Vasalund 1.42 \u2192 Vasalund 40.9%",
"Market: Gefle IF ~32.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Gefle IF \u2193 -2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Vasalund, but sharp money moved toward Gefle IF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.11,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Gefle IF",
"market_prob": 41.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.57,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Vasalund",
"market_prob": 32.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.55,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.55,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.99,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.99,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Gefle IF",
"market_prob_pct": 41.8,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gefle IF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Gefle IF\u0027s win probability at 41.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vasalund",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gefle IF 1.18 xG vs Vasalund 1.42 \u2192 Vasalund 40.9%",
"Market: Gefle IF ~32.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Gefle IF \u2193 -2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Vasalund, but sharp money moved toward Gefle IF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.11,
"hero_label": "Gefle IF",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gefle IF odds shortened \u2193 -2.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Gefle IF than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gefle IF.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Gefle IF than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gefle IF."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Gefle IF more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Gefle IF (\u2193 -2.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Gefle IF",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Gefle IF higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.11,
"edge_pp": -12.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gefle IF",
"market_prob_pct": 41.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.54,
"edge_pp": 3.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.57,
"edge_pp": 8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vasalund",
"market_prob_pct": 32.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Gefle IF.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gefle IF (32.3%).",
"Gefle IF has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.3%, 6/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Vasalund, Market \u2192 Gefle IF, Recent sharp money \u2192 Gefle IF.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.66,
"closing_odds": 2.19,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.66,
"entry_odds": 2.19,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Gefle IF (2.3%) \u2014 6/9 books shortening the line.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.19",
"2.15",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.28 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Gefle IF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.28"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.19,
2.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,8.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.19"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Discovery",
"phase_tip": "Early price formation \u2014 opening equilibrium still forming.",
"pick_team": "Gefle IF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Market moved toward Gefle IF while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gefle IF",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Gefle IF",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Gefle IF",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vasalund",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vasalund",
"away_team_id": 6708,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6708.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vasalund",
"away_team_public_id": "5guwq7pajqvwJV",
"away_team_slug": "vasalund",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505277,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Gefle IF",
"home_team_id": 813,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/813.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gefle IF",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Gefle IF",
"home_team_public_id": "00AKkzOHuIYff8",
"home_team_slug": "gefle-if",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gefle-if",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_public_id": "0nme5hw4ptdA6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 14:00:00",
"public_id": "41Nb4BqK98L6li",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Gavlevallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3919,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0337,
"ev": 0.0109,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3234,
"draw": 0.2586,
"home": 0.418
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.3572
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2841,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.2586,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3234,
"draw": 0.2586,
"home": 0.418
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2686
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.368,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0447,
"ev": -0.1825,
"implied_prob": 0.418,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3234,
"draw": 0.2586,
"home": 0.418
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3733
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0562,
"ev": 0.159,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": 0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": -0.1601,
"ev": -0.3506,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1662,
"alpha_yes": 0.2285,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0499,
"edge_yes": -0.0499,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0557,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0631,
"ev_yes": -0.1506,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1003,
"implied_no": 0.4091,
"implied_yes": 0.5909,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4164
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5804
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4164,
"p_final_yes": 0.5804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2203,
"alpha_under": 0.2003,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0755,
"edge_under": 0.0755,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1105,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.5575,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5553,
"implied_under": 0.4425,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4447,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2203,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5391
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2003,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.4447,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5391,
"p_final_under": 0.4594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.159,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.159,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasalund at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasalund as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasalund",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gefle IF, but the model still strongly favours Vasalund.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"uplift_away": null,
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},
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
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},
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},
"match_id": 1505277,
"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
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},
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"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Gefle IF"
},
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"ev": 0.1396,
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.83,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505277,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:56:06.573303+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ettan - Norra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 5 | FBK Karlstad | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 42 |
| 6 | IF Karlstad | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | Enköping | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 9 | Gefle IF | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 10 | Umeå FC | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 12 | Vasalund | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 27 |
| 13 | Sollentuna | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 24 |
| 14 | Piteå | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 57 | 20 | +37 | 54 |
| 2 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 45 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 45 | 32 | +13 | 46 |
| 4 | Stocksund | 24 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 14 |
| 5 | Assyriska FF | 24 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 32 |
| 6 | Arlanda | 24 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 24 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 42 |
| 8 | Enköping | 24 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | IF Karlstad | 24 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 40 |
| 10 | Vasalund | 24 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 11 | Umeå FC | 24 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Järfälla | 24 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 18 |
| 13 | Karlberg | 24 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 29 |
| 14 | Gefle IF | 24 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 15 | Piteå | 24 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 21 |
| 16 | Sollentuna | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 24 |
