The model missed the final outcome (Arlanda win 1–4).
The model had projected Vasalund at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Vasalund Arlanda ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasalund | 39.9% | 36.2% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.8% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Arlanda | 30.6% | 35.0% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Arlanda win 1–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Arlanda win 1–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vasalund 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Arlanda 30.6%
- xG · Vasalund 1.40 — Arlanda 1.20
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vasalund 2.53 · Draw 3.19 · Arlanda 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Vasalund 36.2% · Draw 28.8% · Arlanda 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vasalund 2.53 · Draw 3.19 · Arlanda 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Vasalund 36.2% · Draw 28.8% · Arlanda 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Arlanda win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
77/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Arlanda win · Vasalund 1–4 Arlanda
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "12c20b610c6f79d3ac79903838264ce6c84975d5f3a919c7f81197c7f0944ce8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"away_win_prob": 0.3058,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Arlanda",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Arlanda"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Vasalund",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0372,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3625,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.6,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 40.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.53
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.53,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Vasalund Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.76,
"market_odds": 2.53,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 9.0,
"prob_edge": 0.5,
"value_pct": 1.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Vasalund or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Vasalund or Arlanda",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Arlanda",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Vasalund or Arlanda",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Vasalund"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 1.2,
"implied_prob": 39.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Vasalund Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 2.53
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Arlanda",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.0,
"draw": 28.75,
"home": 36.25
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 10:59:32",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 10:30:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Vasalund",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.25,
"gap_pp": 3.72,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.75,
"gap_pp": 0.73,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.0,
"gap_pp": -4.45,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.74,
"gap_pp": -9.54,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.26,
"gap_pp": 9.54,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.25,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.19,
"early": 3.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.75,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.61,
"early": 1.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.74,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.26,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.1,
"ev": 0.0938,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.75,
"market_prob": 0.1143,
"market_prob_pct": 11.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0156,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4152,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"p_final": 0.4309,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1526,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0413,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4309
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.1,
"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1914,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10322.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0117,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.384,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"p_final": 0.3957,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0922,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0542,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5999
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1425,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.2,
"text": "+14.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1692,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.9,
"text": "-16.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1425,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10128.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0429,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0429,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0112,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Vasalund",
"sort_key": 1789.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.42,
"hero_label": "Arlanda",
"market_prob_pct": 36.2,
"market_team": "Vasalund",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Vasalund",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasalund at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasalund as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasalund",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0429,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0112,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.42,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.42,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Vasalund",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasalund at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasalund as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasalund",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0429,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0112,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vasalund 1.40 xG vs Arlanda 1.20 \u2192 Vasalund 39.9%",
"Market: Vasalund ~36.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Vasalund +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vasalund with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.69,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Vasalund",
"market_prob": 36.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.73,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.42,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Arlanda",
"market_prob": 35.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.21,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.21,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.57,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Arlanda",
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Vasalund"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.42,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vasalund",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Vasalund \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vasalund 1.40 xG vs Arlanda 1.20 \u2192 Vasalund 39.9%",
"Market: Vasalund ~36.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Vasalund +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vasalund with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.42,
"hero_label": "Arlanda",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.42,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Arlanda",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.69,
"edge_pp": 3.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vasalund",
"market_prob_pct": 36.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.73,
"edge_pp": 0.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.42,
"edge_pp": -4.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Arlanda",
"market_prob_pct": 35.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Vasalund (36.2%).",
"Vasalund \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.17,
"closing_odds": 2.62,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.17,
"entry_odds": 2.62,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Vasalund",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "Vasalund",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "arlanda",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Arlanda",
"away_team_id": 16597,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16597.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arlanda",
"away_team_public_id": "1lLCZmKbNpRgbw",
"away_team_slug": "arlanda",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505290,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Vasalund",
"home_team_id": 6708,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6708.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vasalund",
"home_team_public_id": "5guwq7pajqvwJV",
"home_team_slug": "vasalund",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vasalund",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_public_id": "0nme5hw4ptdA6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 11:00:00",
"public_id": "2PVRtAhGjHLhfT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Solna",
"venue_name": "Skytteholms IP"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.42,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.35,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.35,
"draw": 0.2875,
"home": 0.3625
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3314
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2967,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.2875,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.35,
"draw": 0.2875,
"home": 0.3625
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2896
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4249,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.35,
"draw": 0.2875,
"home": 0.3625
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3783
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": -0.0761,
"ev": -0.1994,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0044,
"ev": 0.0112,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1603,
"alpha_yes": 0.2204,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0757,
"edge_yes": -0.0757,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1425,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0542,
"ev_yes": -0.1692,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1062,
"implied_no": 0.3813,
"implied_yes": 0.6187,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5999
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3957,
"p_final_yes": 0.5999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2094,
"alpha_under": 0.1523,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.225,
"edge_over": -0.1021,
"edge_under": 0.1021,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1101,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0413,
"implied_over": 0.5841,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5848,
"implied_under": 0.4159,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4152,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4309
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5632,
"p_final_under": 0.4309,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasalund at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasalund as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasalund",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasalund).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0429,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0112,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Vasalund"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.384,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1603,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3957
},
"p_final": 0.3957,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0542,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5999
}
},
"edge": 0.0757,
"ev": 0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0156,
"market_prob": 0.4152,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2094,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"p_final": 0.4309,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0413,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"best_odd": 2.225,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4309
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1021,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4159,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505290,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1425,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arlanda",
"home": "Vasalund"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4159,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0429,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0112,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505290,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T10:59:34.580164+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Vasalund & Arlanda!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Ettan - Norra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 25 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 57 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 47 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 5 | FBK Karlstad | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 6 | Enköping | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 9 | Karlberg | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 10 | Gefle IF | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 11 | Umeå FC | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 12 | Vasalund | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 27 |
| 13 | Sollentuna | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 14 | Piteå | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 22 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 19 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 25 | 60 | 20 | +40 | 57 |
| 2 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 45 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 25 | 47 | 34 | +13 | 47 |
| 4 | Stocksund | 25 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 15 |
| 5 | Assyriska FF | 25 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 32 |
| 6 | Arlanda | 24 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 25 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Enköping | 25 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 42 |
| 9 | IF Karlstad | 25 | 37 | 25 | +12 | 41 |
| 10 | Vasalund | 24 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 25 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 32 |
| 12 | Järfälla | 25 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 19 |
| 13 | Umeå FC | 24 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 29 |
| 14 | Piteå | 25 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 22 |
| 15 | Gefle IF | 25 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 30 |
| 16 | Sollentuna | 25 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 24 |
