AI correctly predicted the Umeå FC win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Umeå FC Umeå FC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piteå | 26.6% | 32.5% | -5.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 25.3% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Umeå FC | 44.3% | 42.2% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Piteå's win probability at 32.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 26.6%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Umeå FC win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Piteå. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Umeå FC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Umeå FC higher (50.1% vs model 44.3%, 5.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Umeå FC win 0–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Piteå 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Umeå FC 44.3%
- xG · Piteå 1.11 — Umeå FC 1.49
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Piteå 2.82 · Draw 3.62 · Umeå FC 2.17
- Implied 1X2 · Piteå 32.5% · Draw 25.3% · Umeå FC 42.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Piteå 2.82 · Draw 3.62 · Umeå FC 2.17
- Implied 1X2 · Piteå 32.5% · Draw 25.3% · Umeå FC 42.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Umeå FC win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.82
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Umeå FC win · Piteå 0–2 Umeå FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0643,
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"text": "-6.4%"
},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"alert_team": "Pite\u00e5",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.84,
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"market_prob_pct": 42.2,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ume\u00e5 FC at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ume\u00e5 FC as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0643,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0389,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.84,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.84,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.49,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.11,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.49,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.11 \u00b7 Away xG 1.49 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"steam_team": "Pite\u00e5",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ume\u00e5 FC at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ume\u00e5 FC as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0643,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0389,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pite\u00e5 1.11 xG vs Ume\u00e5 FC 1.49 \u2192 Ume\u00e5 FC 44.3%",
"Market: Ume\u00e5 FC ~42.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Pite\u00e5 \u2193 -2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ume\u00e5 FC, but sharp money moved toward Pite\u00e5.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob": 26.64,
"label": "Pite\u00e5",
"market_prob": 32.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.72,
"fair_prob": 29.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.13,
"fair_prob": 44.34,
"label": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"market_prob": 42.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.34,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.34,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Pite\u00e5",
"market_prob_pct": 32.48,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pite\u00e5"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Pite\u00e5\u0027s win probability at 32.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 26.6%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.84,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pite\u00e5 1.11 xG vs Ume\u00e5 FC 1.49 \u2192 Ume\u00e5 FC 44.3%",
"Market: Ume\u00e5 FC ~42.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Pite\u00e5 \u2193 -2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ume\u00e5 FC, but sharp money moved toward Pite\u00e5.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.84,
"hero_label": "Pite\u00e5",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pite\u00e5 odds shortened \u2193 -2.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Pite\u00e5. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pite\u00e5.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Pite\u00e5. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pite\u00e5."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Pite\u00e5 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Pite\u00e5 (\u2193 -2.8%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.84,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.3 pp (at 44.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Pite\u00e5",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Pite\u00e5 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.84,
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pite\u00e5",
"market_prob_pct": 32.48,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.72,
"edge_pp": 3.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.13,
"edge_pp": 2.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.21,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pite\u00e5.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ume\u00e5 FC (42.2%).",
"Pite\u00e5 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.8%, 5/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ume\u00e5 FC, Market \u2192 Ume\u00e5 FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Pite\u00e5.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.46,
"closing_odds": 2.82,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.46,
"entry_odds": 2.82,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Pite\u00e5 (2.8%) \u2014 5/9 books shortening the line.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.88",
"2.84",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.15 \u2192 2.67 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"pick_team": "Pite\u00e5",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.67"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
2.82,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Pite\u00e5",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved toward Pite\u00e5 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Pite\u00e5",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Pite\u00e5",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Pite\u00e5",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "umea-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"away_team_id": 6705,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6705.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"away_team_public_id": "0HQ9w7lHVxPywL",
"away_team_slug": "umea-fc",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505263,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Pite\u00e5",
"home_team_id": 11671,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11671.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pite\u00e5",
"home_team_public_id": "3ZCDaMh4VHqq3P",
"home_team_slug": "pitea",
"ht.home_team_slug": "pitea",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_public_id": "0nme5hw4ptdA6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 17:00:00",
"public_id": "3q9m0JFKdiHGST",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "LF Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.436,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4221,
"draw": 0.253,
"home": 0.3248
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"p_final": 0.4312
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2833,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.253,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4221,
"draw": 0.253,
"home": 0.3248
},
"model_prob": 0.2901,
"p_final": 0.2636
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4109,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1511,
"implied_prob": 0.3248,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4221,
"draw": 0.253,
"home": 0.3248
},
"model_prob": 0.2669,
"p_final": 0.301
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.4429
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": 0.0503,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.2901
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0877,
"ev": -0.2472,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.2669
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1605,
"alpha_yes": 0.2206,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0734,
"edge_yes": -0.0734,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1625,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0621,
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1129,
"implied_no": 0.3916,
"implied_yes": 0.6084,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.3927,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4043
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2206,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.6073,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5914
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4043,
"p_final_yes": 0.5914,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2126,
"alpha_under": 0.1933,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.0927,
"edge_under": 0.0927,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0449,
"implied_over": 0.5747,
"implied_over_mf": 0.576,
"implied_under": 0.4253,
"implied_under_mf": 0.424,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.556
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4422
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.556,
"p_final_under": 0.4422,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ume\u00e5 FC at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ume\u00e5 FC as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pite\u00e5, but the model still strongly favours Ume\u00e5 FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
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},
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"reasons": [],
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"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ume\u00e5 FC"
},
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},
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},
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},
"match_id": 1505263,
"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
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},
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"probabilities": {
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},
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],
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"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
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"slot": "secondary"
},
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{
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"risk_band": "strong",
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],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"home": "Pite\u00e5"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1625,
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"market": "btts",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-6.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
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"raw_edge_display": "+2.1 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.0389,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505263,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T17:00:35.979380+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ettan - Norra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 5 | FBK Karlstad | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 42 |
| 6 | IF Karlstad | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | Enköping | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 9 | Gefle IF | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 10 | Umeå FC | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 12 | Vasalund | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 27 |
| 13 | Sollentuna | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 24 |
| 14 | Piteå | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 57 | 20 | +37 | 54 |
| 2 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 45 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 45 | 32 | +13 | 46 |
| 4 | Stocksund | 24 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 14 |
| 5 | Assyriska FF | 24 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 32 |
| 6 | Arlanda | 24 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 24 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 42 |
| 8 | Enköping | 24 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | IF Karlstad | 24 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 40 |
| 10 | Vasalund | 24 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 11 | Umeå FC | 24 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Järfälla | 24 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 18 |
| 13 | Karlberg | 24 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 29 |
| 14 | Gefle IF | 24 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 15 | Piteå | 24 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 21 |
| 16 | Sollentuna | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 24 |
