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View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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{
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{
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{
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"raw_pct": -5.8,
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"id": "btts",
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"market_team": "Elfsborg W",
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"model_team": "Elfsborg W",
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"status_icon": "!",
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.71,
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"label": "Elfsborg W",
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
"edge_pp": 10.76,
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"label": "G\u00f6teborg W",
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"outcome": "away"
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{
"edge_pp": -6.69,
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"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.69,
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"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": -1.15,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.65,
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"outcome": "yes"
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{
"edge_pp": 1.15,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
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],
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"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
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"market_prob_pct": 50.3,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Elfsborg W"
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"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
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"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Elfsborg W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
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"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
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"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Elfsborg W, but the market prices them higher (50.3% vs model 36.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
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"hero_label": "Elfsborg W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
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"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Elfsborg W is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Elfsborg W than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Elfsborg W than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Elfsborg W than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Elfsborg W is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Elfsborg W more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Elfsborg W (pricing gap 13.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 13.71,
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"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
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"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
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"label": "Elfsborg W",
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"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "G\u00f6teborg W",
"market_prob_pct": 23.01,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Elfsborg W than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Elfsborg W (50.3%).",
"Both lean Elfsborg W, but the market prices them higher (50.3% vs model 36.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_warning",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation warning",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.83,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "Elfsborg W",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Elfsborg W",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10893,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10893.webp",
"away_team_name": "G\u00f6teborg W",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1501409,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 21693,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21693.webp",
"home_team_name": "Elfsborg W",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 736,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/736.webp",
"league_name": "Elitettan",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 11:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.2301,
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"p_final": 0.2482
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"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2867,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
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"home": {
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"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0653,
"ev": -0.199,
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},
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"edge_no": 0.0115,
"edge_yes": -0.0115,
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"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
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"edge_over": -0.0669,
"edge_under": 0.0669,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1999,
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"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
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"best_tracked_ev": 0.0464,
"confidence": 4.0,
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],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
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"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0464,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4511,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
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"side": "home",
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0669,
"ev": 0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.4511,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1501409,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0464,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "G\u00f6teborg W",
"home": "Elfsborg W"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1501409,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:54:45.686298+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Sweden. Elitettan Predicciones
UEFA Champions League
Premier League
La Liga
Serie A
Ligue 1
Eredivisie
Bundesliga
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa Conference League
Primeira Liga
Superliga
Eliteserien
Allsvenskan
World Cup
