Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Berazategui Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 43.8%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 42.9%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Defensores de Cambaceres ↓ -2.9% 3.5 → 3.4
- Tipo de movimiento
- ↗ Soporte del mercado
- Puntuación de vapor
- 38C
Limited conviction - Amplitud del mercado
- 7/10
- Fase
- Descubrimiento
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
Movimiento liderado por sharp: Betfair - validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Movimiento con mayor consenso
Camino de probabilidades — Defensores de Cambaceres
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 7h 59m
Narrativa de mercado
Soporte del mercado en Defensores de Cambaceres (2.9%) — 7/10 casas ajustando la línea.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Empate -1.7 pp
- Amplitud
- 7/10
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se acortaron ↓ -2.9%.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, el interés de compra reciente ha estado en Defensores de Cambaceres, y las probabilidades se han reducido en 2.9%.
Interés de compra en Defensores de Cambaceres: probabilidades reducidas en 2.9%.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores de Cambaceres | 27.07% | 26.4% | +0.7 pp |
| Empate | 29.09% | 30.75% | -1.7 pp |
| Berazategui | 43.84% | 42.85% | +1.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+15.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+9.9% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +9.9% · EV No -18.8%
Defensores de Cambaceres market context before kickoff
↗ Soporte del mercado on Defensores de Cambaceres
- Odds move
- 3.50 → 3.40 (↓ -2.9%)
- Market breadth
- 7/10
- Steam score
- 38 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.94
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 8382,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8382.webp",
"away_team_name": "Berazategui",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
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"goals_away": null,
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"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8392,
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"home_team_name": "Defensores de Cambaceres",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 21:30:00",
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"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.005,
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},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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},
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},
"btts": {
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"ev_no": -0.188,
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"edge_over": 0.1023,
"edge_under": -0.1023,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"implied_over": 0.3797,
"implied_under": 0.6203,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
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"game_typing_module": true,
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"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
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"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
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"grade": "A",
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},
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"active": false,
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"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
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"signals": {
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"xg_diff": 0.36
},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4273,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Berazategui"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0919,
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"implied_prob": 0.4441,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1023,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
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"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4385,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.2709
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Defensores de Cambaceres"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1792,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499945,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:10:59.349448+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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