Predicciones / Fútbol / Argentina. Primera C / Claypole vs Deportivo Muñiz

Claypole vs Deportivo Muñiz Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 14, 2026 - 18:30
1.52
1.08
46% 29% 25%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
Claypole Ligeramente favorito
Probabilidad del modelo
45.8%
Probabilidad de mercado
44.3%
Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar

Resumen:

Tanto el modelo como el mercado identifican a Claypole como el probable ganador. La divergencia actual se mantiene dentro de límites normales.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar
Mayor brecha
Empate -2.1 pp
Amplitud
6/6
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

Evaluación de mercado

El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.

Sin embargo, Claypole ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.

La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Claypole.

  • Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Claypole 45.82% 44.32% +1.5 pp
Empate 28.81% 30.93% -2.1 pp
Deportivo Muñiz 25.37% 24.75% +0.6 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
  • Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
BTTS Sí — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +25%+ Modelo 53.2%
Secundaria (valor equilibrado): Más de 2.5 (vehículo eléctrico +25%+) — 48.2% Modelo
EV más bajo que el primario, pero con mayor probabilidad de modelo (más “estable” cuando se muestra).
Más / Menos de 2.5 Mejor valor (+EV)
Más de 2.5 48.2% · Menos de 2.5 51.8%
EV terminado +25%+ · EV inferior -23.8%
Lectura de valor: Más de 2.5
1X2 Poco valor
Claypole · Probabilidad del modelo 45.8%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 44.3%
EV línea de consenso: -9.6%
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
  • Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado +25%+ · EV inferior -23.8% (5 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -26.1%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Claypole market context before kickoff

⚠️ Mercado volátil on Claypole

Odds move
2.10 → 2.10 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
6/6
Steam score
30 (C)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado

  1. Pronóstico generado
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
2.88
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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            "is_hero": false,
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            "market_prob_pct": 24.75,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
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        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
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        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Claypole (44.3%).",
          "The model and market both identify Claypole as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
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      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
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      "market_overview": {
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        "current_odds": 2.1,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.1,
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        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Claypole",
        "steam_tier": "C"
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      "premium_teaser": {
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 8393,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8393.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Deportivo Mu\u00f1iz",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1499943,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 8391,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8391.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Claypole",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 132,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera C",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 18:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2972,
            "best_odd": 3.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0018,
            "ev": -0.1025,
            "implied_prob": 0.2475,
            "model_prob": 0.2536,
            "p_final": 0.2493
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4356,
            "best_odd": 2.88,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0093,
            "ev": -0.1359,
            "implied_prob": 0.3093,
            "model_prob": 0.288,
            "p_final": 0.3
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4398,
            "best_odd": 2.01,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0067,
            "ev": -0.0957,
            "implied_prob": 0.4432,
            "model_prob": 0.4584,
            "p_final": 0.4499
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.58,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.38,
          "edge_no": -0.1219,
          "edge_yes": 0.1219,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2606,
          "ev_yes": 0.2662,
          "implied_no": 0.5899,
          "implied_yes": 0.4101,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.75,
          "best_under_odd": 1.47,
          "edge_over": 0.1298,
          "edge_under": -0.1298,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.3255,
          "ev_under": -0.2385,
          "implied_over": 0.3522,
          "implied_under": 0.6478,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3255,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
          "draw_prob": 0.288,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.44
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0067,
          "ev": -0.0957,
          "implied_prob": 0.4432,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4584,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Claypole"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1219,
          "ev": 0.2662,
          "implied_prob": 0.4101,
          "model_prob": 0.532,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1298,
          "ev": 0.3255,
          "implied_prob": 0.3522,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1499943,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3255,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2536,
        "draw": 0.288,
        "home": 0.4584
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3255,
        "implied_prob": 0.3522,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3255,
          "implied_prob": 0.3522,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Deportivo Mu\u00f1iz",
        "home": "Claypole"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.141618,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2662,
        "implied_prob": 0.4101,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.532,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1499943,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:34:11.848007+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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