Pronóstico confiable
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Mayor movimiento del día
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 7h 59m
Betfair lideró el repricing en San Martín Burzaco (5.2%) — casa sharp movió antes del seguimiento más amplio.
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
La estimación justa muestra una modesta ventaja sobre el precio actual de mercado en San Martín Burzaco.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en San Martín Burzaco.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Burzaco | 37.54% | 32.52% | +5.0 pp |
| Empate | 29.61% | 32.29% | -2.7 pp |
| Villa Dalmine | 32.85% | 35.19% | -2.3 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
San Martín Burzaco market context before kickoff
⚡ Movimiento liderado por sharp on San Martín Burzaco
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "00357dc2754c00845dd9fcb51a9d885ea16c292357a795cfb6e5a477079ac504",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : San Mart\u00edn Burzaco or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0274,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3482,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.9,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"odd": 2.95
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.65
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"odd": 2.62
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.62
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.6
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.6
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.55
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.55
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.95,
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"display_market": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.87,
"market_odds": 2.59,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 10.8,
"prob_edge": 3.7,
"value_pct": 10.9,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco or Villa Dalmine",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Villa Dalmine",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco or Villa Dalmine",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"edge": 10.9,
"implied_prob": 33.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 2.95
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5665,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 56.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2852,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.5,
"text": "-28.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.5665,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10509.85,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.2,
"text": "-27.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3625,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10476.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0732,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"max_ev": -0.0732,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"sort_key": 1781.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"alert_team": "Villa Dalmine",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.75,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"market_team": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.14,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"market_prob": 35.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.75,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.61,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Villa Dalmine",
"market_prob": 32.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.37,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.37,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.36,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Villa Dalmine"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 2.75,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn Burzaco, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Villa Dalmine remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.75,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Villa Dalmine odds lengthened \u2191 +15.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Villa Dalmine has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Villa Dalmine \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Villa Dalmine has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Villa Dalmine \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Villa Dalmine has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/12) supports the current market view on Villa Dalmine."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 2.75,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.36,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villa Dalmine",
"market_prob_pct": 32.24,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Villa Dalmine \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Mart\u00edn Burzaco (35.4%).",
"However, Villa Dalmine has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +15.2%, 10/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco, Market \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco, Recent sharp money \u2192 Villa Dalmine.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.84,
"entry_odds": 2.79,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "10/12",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/12 books synchronized on Villa Dalmine (15.2% steam, score 82) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "2.90 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 59m",
"pick_team": "Villa Dalmine",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Villa Dalmine \u2191 +15.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Villa Dalmine",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Villa Dalmine \u2191 +15.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/12",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Villa Dalmine",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_team_name": "Villa Dalmine",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 481,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/481.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villa Dalmine",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499471,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8387,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8387.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 23:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Francisco Boga Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4458,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0894,
"implied_prob": 0.3224,
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3252
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4311,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1308,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3115
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4354,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3634
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": -0.1437,
"edge_yes": 0.1437,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"implied_no": 0.5987,
"implied_yes": 0.4013,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.38,
"edge_over": 0.1635,
"edge_under": -0.1635,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5665,
"ev_under": -0.2852,
"implied_over": 0.3185,
"implied_under": 0.6815,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1437,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1635,
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499471,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5665,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
"implied_prob": 0.3185,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villa Dalmine",
"home": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499471,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:13:17.810423+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana Predicciones
Enter keywords to search teams, leagues or fixtures
UEFA Champions League
Premier League
La Liga
Serie A
Ligue 1
Eredivisie
Bundesliga
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa Conference League
Primeira Liga
Superliga
Eliteserien
Allsvenskan
World Cup
