Predicción confiable
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Patronato, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (39.7% vs modelo 35.2%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
La estimación justa muestra una modesta ventaja sobre el precio actual de mercado en Midland.
Sin embargo, Patronato ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Patronato.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patronato | 35.17% | 39.71% | -4.5 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 32.62% | -3.0 pp |
| Midland | 35.17% | 27.68% | +7.5 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
Patronato market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Patronato
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1304,
"implied_prob": 0.3971,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Patronato"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1441,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4009,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1568,
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498357,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4942,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3252,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Midland",
"home": "Patronato"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4009,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498357,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T02:46:30.370966+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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