Predicciones / Fútbol / Sweden. Superettan / Norrby IF vs United Nordic

Norrby IF vs United Nordic Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 21, 2026 - 15:00
1.40
1.20
40% 29% 31%

Evaluación de predicción

Predicción confiable

Favorito
Norrby IF Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
39.9%
Probabilidad de mercado
37.4%
Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar

Resumen:

Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar
Mayor brecha
United Nordic -4.6 pp
Amplitud
2/2
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

Evaluación de mercado

El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.

Sin embargo, Norrby IF ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.

La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Norrby IF.

  • Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Norrby IF 39.94% 37.38% +2.6 pp
Empate 29.48% 27.45% +2.0 pp
United Nordic 30.58% 35.17% -4.6 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
  • Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+5.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Borde delgado: BTTS No (+2.8% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
Convicción moderada (5.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +5.7% Modelo 51.8%
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Tendencia
54.3% · No 45.7%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -16.9% · EV No +2.8%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
1X2 Poco valor
Norrby IF · Probabilidad del modelo 40.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 37.4%
EV línea de consenso: -5.3%
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.5/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.5 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
  • Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -19.0% · EV inferior +5.7% (1 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -16.9% · EV No +2.8%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado

  1. Predicción generada
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
2.62
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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        "unavailable_note": ""
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        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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        "move_display": "+0.0%",
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        "steam_tier": "C"
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      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
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        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 16601,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16601.webp",
      "away_team_name": "United Nordic",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1497611,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
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      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 2173,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2173.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Norrby IF",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 114,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/114.webp",
      "league_name": "Superettan",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-21 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4189,
            "best_odd": 2.615,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0193,
            "ev": -0.1309,
            "implied_prob": 0.3517,
            "model_prob": 0.3056,
            "p_final": 0.3324
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2909,
            "best_odd": 3.35,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0059,
            "ev": -0.0607,
            "implied_prob": 0.2745,
            "model_prob": 0.2948,
            "p_final": 0.2804
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4325,
            "best_odd": 2.46,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0112,
            "ev": -0.0529,
            "implied_prob": 0.3738,
            "model_prob": 0.3997,
            "p_final": 0.385
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.25,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.53,
          "edge_no": 0.0522,
          "edge_yes": -0.0522,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0283,
          "ev_yes": -0.1692,
          "implied_no": 0.4048,
          "implied_yes": 0.5952,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.68,
          "best_under_odd": 2.04,
          "edge_over": -0.0664,
          "edge_under": 0.0664,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1902,
          "ev_under": 0.0567,
          "implied_over": 0.5484,
          "implied_under": 0.4516,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0567,
      "confidence": 5.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
          "draw_prob": 0.2948,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0112,
          "ev": -0.0529,
          "implied_prob": 0.3738,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3997,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Norrby IF"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0522,
          "ev": 0.0283,
          "implied_prob": 0.4048,
          "model_prob": 0.457,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0664,
          "ev": 0.0567,
          "implied_prob": 0.4516,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1497611,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0567,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3056,
        "draw": 0.2948,
        "home": 0.3997
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "United Nordic",
        "home": "Norrby IF"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.015625,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0567,
        "implied_prob": 0.4516,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1497611,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T08:04:57.991628+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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