Predicciones / Fútbol / Sweden. Superettan / Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK

Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 14, 2026 - 13:00
1.50
1.20
43% 29% 29%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
Ljungskile SK Partido equilibrado
Probabilidad del modelo
42.6%
Probabilidad de mercado
41.0%
Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar

Resumen:

Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar
Mayor brecha
Ostersunds FK -4.2 pp
Amplitud
13/13
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

Evaluación de mercado

El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.

Sin embargo, Ljungskile SK ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.

La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Ljungskile SK.

  • Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Ljungskile SK 42.57% 41.03% +1.5 pp
Empate 28.63% 26.0% +2.6 pp
Ostersunds FK 28.8% 32.97% -4.2 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
  • Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+8.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Borde delgado: BTTS No (+1.4% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +8.2% Modelo 49.4%
No es un resultado dominante (la probabilidad del modelo es inferior al 50% en este tramo).
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Tendencia
55.9% · No 44.1%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.4% · EV No +1.4%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
1X2 Poco valor
Ljungskile SK · Probabilidad del modelo 42.5%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 41.0%
EV línea de consenso: -6.2%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -5.0% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.1%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.0/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.0 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -11.5% · EV inferior +8.2% (10 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.4% · EV No +1.4%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Ljungskile SK market context before kickoff

⚠️ Mercado volátil on Ljungskile SK

Odds move
2.20 → 2.20 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
13/13
Steam score
30 (C)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado

  1. Pronóstico generado
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
2.8
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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          ],
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            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Ljungskile SK."
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          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 13.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 42.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
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        "unavailable_note": ""
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          "The model and market both lean Ljungskile SK, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Ostersunds FK remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
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      "market_move_intelligence": {
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      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "13/13",
        "current_odds": 2.2,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.2,
        "pick_team": "Ljungskile SK",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Ljungskile SK",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 376,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/376.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ostersunds FK",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1497603,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 2165,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2165.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Ljungskile SK",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 114,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/114.webp",
      "league_name": "Superettan",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 13:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Uddevalla",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4219,
            "best_odd": 2.8,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0175,
            "ev": -0.126,
            "implied_prob": 0.3297,
            "model_prob": 0.2881,
            "p_final": 0.3121
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2881,
            "best_odd": 3.55,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0076,
            "ev": -0.0498,
            "implied_prob": 0.26,
            "model_prob": 0.2865,
            "p_final": 0.2676
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4398,
            "best_odd": 2.25,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0067,
            "ev": -0.0619,
            "implied_prob": 0.4103,
            "model_prob": 0.4254,
            "p_final": 0.4169
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.3,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": 0.0287,
          "edge_yes": -0.0287,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0143,
          "ev_yes": -0.0944,
          "implied_no": 0.4123,
          "implied_yes": 0.5877,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.75,
          "best_under_odd": 2.19,
          "edge_over": -0.0506,
          "edge_under": 0.0506,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1145,
          "ev_under": 0.0819,
          "implied_over": 0.5566,
          "implied_under": 0.4434,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0819,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.559,
          "draw_prob": 0.2865,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4254,
          "over_prob": 0.506,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.494,
          "xg_diff": 0.3
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0067,
          "ev": -0.0619,
          "implied_prob": 0.4103,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4254,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Ljungskile SK"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0287,
          "ev": 0.0143,
          "implied_prob": 0.4123,
          "model_prob": 0.441,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0506,
          "ev": 0.0819,
          "implied_prob": 0.4434,
          "model_prob": 0.494,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1497603,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0819,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2881,
        "draw": 0.2865,
        "home": 0.4254
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ostersunds FK",
        "home": "Ljungskile SK"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.040459,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0819,
        "implied_prob": 0.4434,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.494,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1497603,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:44:25.533946+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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