Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -21.0% · EV No +21.0%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de predicción
Predicción confiable
- Favorito
- Sogndal Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 44.0%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Sogndal, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (44.0% vs modelo 37.1%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Sogndal -7.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 7/7
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
Sin embargo, Raufoss ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Raufoss.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raufoss | 33.31% | 30.97% | +2.3 pp |
| Empate | 29.63% | 25.02% | +4.6 pp |
| Sogndal | 37.06% | 44.02% | -7.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+21.0% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Sogndal · Probabilidad del modelo 37.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 44.0%
EV línea de consenso: -13.5%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -2.8% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -25.8% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(5 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -21.0% · EV No +21.0%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -21.0% · EV No +21.0%
Raufoss market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Raufoss
- Odds move
- 3.04 → 3.04 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 7/7
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Predicción generada
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.1
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"paragraphs": [],
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"title": "Prediction Assessment",
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"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
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"market_agreement": "moderate",
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"bullets": [
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],
"follow_up": "However, Raufoss has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
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"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sogndal. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Raufoss.",
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},
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"paragraphs": [
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],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
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},
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"premium_teaser": {
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"match": {
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"away_team_id": 758,
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"country_code": "NO",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_name": "Norway",
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"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
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"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2153.webp",
"home_team_name": "Raufoss",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_id": 104,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/104.webp",
"league_name": "1. Division",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-21 14:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Raufoss",
"venue_name": "NAMMO Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.403,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.4402,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4121
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2794,
"best_odd": 3.695,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.2502,
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.263
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4339,
"best_odd": 2.985,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.32
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.66,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"edge_no": 0.1013,
"edge_yes": -0.1013,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2103,
"ev_yes": -0.2097,
"implied_no": 0.3537,
"implied_yes": 0.6463,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.54,
"best_under_odd": 2.59,
"edge_over": -0.142,
"edge_under": 0.142,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2577,
"ev_under": 0.3416,
"implied_over": 0.624,
"implied_under": 0.376,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3416,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.4402,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sogndal"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1013,
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3537,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.142,
"ev": 0.3416,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1495869,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3416,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3537,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2103,
"implied_prob": 0.3537,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sogndal",
"home": "Raufoss"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.123864,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3416,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495869,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T13:57:06.005475+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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