Predicciones / Fútbol / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Vittsjö W vs Kristianstad W

Vittsjö W vs Kristianstad W Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jun 12, 2026 - 17:00
1.45
1.98
27% 24% 49%

Evaluación de pronóstico

Pronóstico confiable

Favorito
Kristianstad W Ligeramente favorito
Probabilidad del modelo
48.8%
Probabilidad de mercado
42.9%
Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar

Resumen:

Tanto el modelo como el mercado identifican a Kristianstad W como el probable ganador. La divergencia actual se mantiene dentro de límites normales.

Auditoría de Mercado

Acuerdo de mercado
Fuerte
Validación
Aprobar
Mayor brecha
Kristianstad W +5.9 pp
Amplitud
11/11
Actividad actual del mercado
Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.

La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.

Evaluación de mercado

La estimación justa muestra una modesta ventaja sobre el precio actual de mercado en Kristianstad W.

Sin embargo, Vittsjö W ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.

La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Vittsjö W.

  • Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
Resultado Justo Mercado Borde
Vittsjö W 27.04% 30.3% -3.3 pp
Empate 24.19% 26.82% -2.6 pp
Kristianstad W 48.77% 42.88% +5.9 pp

Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Veredicto final de apuestas

Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.

  • Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
  • Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+21.9% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+12.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico +21.9% Modelo 66.6%
Secundaria (valor equilibrado): BTTS Sí (vehículo eléctrico +12.2%) — 67.2% Modelo
EV más bajo que el primario, pero con mayor probabilidad de modelo (más “estable” cuando se muestra).
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Mejor valor (+EV)
67.2% · No 32.8%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +12.2% · EV No -25.2%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
1X2 Poco valor
Kristianstad W · Probabilidad del modelo 48.8%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 42.9%
EV línea de consenso: -4.0%
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 9.3%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
  • Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
  • EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
  • Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado +21.9% · EV inferior -27.2% (9 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +12.2% · EV No -25.2%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Vittsjö W market context before kickoff

⚠️ Mercado volátil on Vittsjö W

Odds move
2.90 → 2.90 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
11/11
Steam score
30 (C)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Ciclo de vida de decisión

Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado

  1. Pronóstico generado
  2. Mercado comparado
  3. Validación aprobada
  4. Cierre grabado
  5. CLV evaluado
Entrada
2.12
Cierre
Pendiente
CLV
Pendiente

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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          "suppress_value_language": false
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        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
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          "headline": "Slight edge match",
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          "market_prob_pct": 42.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 48.8,
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          "paragraphs": [],
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          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
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        },
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        "hero_side": "away",
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        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
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          "bullets": [
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          ],
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          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Kristianstad W.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Vittsj\u00f6 W.",
          "paragraphs": [
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            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Vittsj\u00f6 W."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
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            "At the same time, Vittsj\u00f6 W has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (11/11) supports the current market view on Vittsj\u00f6 W."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
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        "model_validation": {
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          "status": "pass"
        },
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        "outcome_separation": {
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          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 21.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 48.8,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
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        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
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            "is_hero": false,
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            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.63,
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            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
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            "side": "draw"
          },
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            "is_hero": true,
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            "side": "away"
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        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Vittsj\u00f6 W.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Kristianstad W (42.9%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kristianstad W, Market \u2192 Kristianstad W, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
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        "closing_odds": null,
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        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
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        "current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
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        "entry_odds": 2.12,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
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            "id": "model_validated",
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "11/11",
        "current_odds": 2.9,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.9,
        "pick_team": "Vittsj\u00f6 W",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Vittsj\u00f6 W",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 11079,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11079.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Kristianstad W",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1495494,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 11083,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11083.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Vittsj\u00f6 W",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 549,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/549.webp",
      "league_name": "Damallsvenskan",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Vittsjo",
      "venue_name": "Vittsjo"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4102,
            "best_odd": 2.12,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0242,
            "ev": -0.0397,
            "implied_prob": 0.4288,
            "model_prob": 0.4877,
            "p_final": 0.453
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2883,
            "best_odd": 3.39,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0075,
            "ev": -0.1164,
            "implied_prob": 0.2682,
            "model_prob": 0.2421,
            "p_final": 0.2606
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2852,
            "best_odd": 3.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0094,
            "ev": -0.119,
            "implied_prob": 0.303,
            "model_prob": 0.2702,
            "p_final": 0.2937
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.28,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": -0.0991,
          "edge_yes": 0.0991,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2522,
          "ev_yes": 0.1222,
          "implied_no": 0.4271,
          "implied_yes": 0.5729,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.83,
          "best_under_odd": 2.18,
          "edge_over": 0.1255,
          "edge_under": -0.1255,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.2188,
          "ev_under": -0.2719,
          "implied_over": 0.5405,
          "implied_under": 0.4595,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.43,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2188,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.672,
          "draw_prob": 0.2421,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4877,
          "over_prob": 0.666,
          "total_xg": 3.43,
          "under_prob": 0.334,
          "xg_diff": 0.53
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0242,
          "ev": -0.0397,
          "implied_prob": 0.4288,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4877,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Kristianstad W"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0991,
          "ev": 0.1222,
          "implied_prob": 0.5729,
          "model_prob": 0.672,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1255,
          "ev": 0.2188,
          "implied_prob": 0.5405,
          "model_prob": 0.666,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1495494,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2188,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4877,
        "draw": 0.2421,
        "home": 0.2702
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1222,
        "implied_prob": 0.5729,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.672,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1222,
          "implied_prob": 0.5729,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.672,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Kristianstad W",
        "home": "Vittsj\u00f6 W"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.182151,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2188,
        "implied_prob": 0.5405,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.666,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1495494,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:52:37.055135+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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