Sí 72.5% · No 27.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +11.7% · EV No -36.2%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Piteå W Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 62.3%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 50.1%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia Piteå W, pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Piteå W ↓ -3.7% 1.87 → 1.8
- Tipo de movimiento
- ⚠️ Mercado volátil
- Puntuación de vapor
- 6C
Limited conviction - Amplitud del mercado
- 1/5
- Fase
- Volátil
- Libro de referencia
- 1xBet
- validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Camino de probabilidades — Piteå W
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 8h
Abierto
1.87
Bajo/Alto
1.75
Actual
1.80
Narrativa de mercado
Precios volátiles bidireccionales en Piteå W (oscilación 1.87 → 1.75 → 1.80) — neto 3.7% pero alta volatilidad intradía.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Piteå W +12.1 pp
- Amplitud
- 1/5
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se acortaron ↓ -3.7%.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
La estimación estadística justa es materialmente más alta que el mercado en Piteå W.
La confirmación sigue siendo limitada (1/5 libros), lo que sugiere un interés temprano en lugar de un movimiento amplio del mercado.
- El modelo puede ver un enfrentamiento más lento o más igualado que el mercado.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piteå W | 62.26% | 50.14% | +12.1 pp |
| Empate | 19.05% | 24.93% | -5.9 pp |
| Brommapojkarna W | 18.69% | 24.93% | -6.2 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Valor posible en 1X2: Piteå W (+0.4% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+24.3% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+11.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Piteå W · Probabilidad del modelo 62.2%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 50.1%
EV línea de consenso: +0.4%
Más probable
2-1
Probabilidad 8.3%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 7.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +24.3% ·
EV inferior -52.0%
(3 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +11.7% · EV No -36.2%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +11.7% · EV No -36.2%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.79
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"pick_team": "Pite\u00e5 W",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
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"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 6,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/5",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.7%",
"open_odds": 1.87,
"pick_team": "Pite\u00e5 W",
"steam_score": 6,
"steam_team_name": "Pite\u00e5 W",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 16004,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16004.webp",
"away_team_name": "Brommapojkarna W",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1495491,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 10900,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10900.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pite\u00e5 W",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 549,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/549.webp",
"league_name": "Damallsvenskan",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 10:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "LF Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 8.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2721,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1633,
"implied_prob": 0.2493,
"model_prob": 0.1872,
"p_final": 0.2324
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2737,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1602,
"implied_prob": 0.2493,
"model_prob": 0.1908,
"p_final": 0.2333
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4914,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0593,
"ev": 0.0036,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.622,
"p_final": 0.5607
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.54,
"edge_no": -0.1261,
"edge_yes": 0.1261,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.362,
"ev_yes": 0.1165,
"implied_no": 0.4011,
"implied_yes": 0.5989,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.59,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": 0.2002,
"edge_under": -0.2002,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2434,
"ev_under": -0.5204,
"implied_over": 0.5818,
"implied_under": 0.4182,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.14,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2434,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.725,
"draw_prob": 0.1908,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.622,
"over_prob": 0.782,
"total_xg": 4.14,
"under_prob": 0.218,
"xg_diff": 1.2
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0593,
"ev": 0.0036,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.622,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pite\u00e5 W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1261,
"ev": 0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"model_prob": 0.725,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2002,
"ev": 0.2434,
"implied_prob": 0.5818,
"model_prob": 0.782,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1495491,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2434,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1872,
"draw": 0.1908,
"home": 0.622
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.725,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.5989,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.725,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Brommapojkarna W",
"home": "Pite\u00e5 W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.190339,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2434,
"implied_prob": 0.5818,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.782,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495491,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T13:33:25.296815+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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