The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Oakland Roots at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Oakland Roots Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Oakland Roots; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Oakland Roots 1.36 — Birmingham Legion 1.24
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Oakland Roots 1–1 Birmingham Legion
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
"edge_pp": -1.27,
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{
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}
],
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"status": "market_ahead",
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},
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"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "market_ahead",
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Oakland Roots",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 50.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Oakland Roots, but the market prices them higher (50.4% vs model 38.0%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.4,
"hero_label": "Oakland Roots",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Birmingham Legion odds lengthened \u2191 +10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Birmingham Legion has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Oakland Roots than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Birmingham Legion \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Oakland Roots than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Birmingham Legion has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Birmingham Legion \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Oakland Roots more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Birmingham Legion has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/12) supports the current market view on Birmingham Legion."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 12.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Oakland Roots",
"market_prob_pct": 50.41,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.89,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Birmingham Legion",
"market_prob_pct": 23.69,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Birmingham Legion \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Oakland Roots (50.4%).",
"However, Birmingham Legion has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +10.8%, 11/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Oakland Roots, Market \u2192 Oakland Roots, Recent sharp money \u2192 Birmingham Legion.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
"closing_odds": 1.88,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
"entry_odds": 1.88,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Birmingham Legion (10.8%, 11/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.97 \u2192 3.15 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
"pick_team": "Birmingham Legion",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.97"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Birmingham Legion \u2191 +10.8% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Birmingham Legion",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Birmingham Legion \u2191 +10.8% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Birmingham Legion",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Birmingham Legion",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3989,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3989.webp",
"away_team_name": "Birmingham Legion",
"country_code": "US",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493545,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_id": 10874,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10874.webp",
"home_team_name": "Oakland Roots",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_id": 255,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/255.webp",
"league_name": "USL Championship",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-17 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Laney College Football Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.174,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": 0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.2369,
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.252
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2834,
"best_odd": 3.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.2589,
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2694
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4886,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0605,
"ev": -0.166,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4436
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"edge_no": 0.0127,
"edge_yes": -0.0127,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0579,
"ev_yes": -0.0589,
"implied_no": 0.4433,
"implied_yes": 0.5567,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.83,
"best_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.047,
"edge_under": 0.047,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1179,
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"implied_over": 0.529,
"implied_under": 0.471,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0605,
"ev": -0.166,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Oakland Roots"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": 0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.4433,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.047,
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.471,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493545,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0982,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Birmingham Legion",
"home": "Oakland Roots"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035607,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.471,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493545,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T18:59:05.305804+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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USL Championship — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 52 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 6 | Lexington | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 24 |
| 10 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 23 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 46 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 46 | 25 | +21 | 52 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 26 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 37 |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 26 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 38 |
| 5 | Miami FC | 28 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 |
| 6 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 23 |
| 7 | Detroit City | 27 | 33 | 20 | +13 | 47 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 34 |
| 9 | Loudoun United | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 24 |
| 10 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
| 11 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 38 |
| 13 | Brooklyn | 27 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 18 |
| 14 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 22 |
| 15 | Orange County SC | 16 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 28 |
| 16 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 19 |
| 17 | Lexington | 15 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 18 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 19 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 20 |
| 20 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 18 |
| 21 | San Antonio FC | 16 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 25 |
| 22 | New Mexico United | 14 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 23 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 22 |
| 24 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 20 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 15 |
