Waterford · Probabilidad del modelo 64.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 42.9%
EV línea de consenso: +6.2%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Waterford Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 64.0%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 42.9%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia Waterford, pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Waterford +21.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 14/14
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere sustancialmente de los precios actuales del mercado. Pueden ocurrir grandes divergencias cuando los datos de calificación son incompletos, las estimaciones de la fuerza del equipo son inciertas o el mercado incorpora información que no está presente en el modelo. Interprete con precaución.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford | 63.96% | 42.93% | +21.0 pp |
| Empate | 20.77% | 27.3% | -6.5 pp |
| Sligo Rovers | 15.28% | 29.77% | -14.5 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Se requiere validación del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren materialmente (21.0 puntos porcentuales). Se recomienda una validación adicional antes de interpretar esta comparación.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Sí 61.0% · No 39.0%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.7% · EV No -14.2%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Más probable
2-1
Probabilidad 9.7%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 7.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +25%+ ·
EV inferior -32.5%
(12 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.7% · EV No -14.2%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +3.7% · EV No -14.2%
Waterford market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Waterford
- Odds move
- 2.10 → 2.10 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 14/14
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.15
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"alert_move": "",
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"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
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"headline": "Clear favourite",
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"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_prob_pct": 64.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
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"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
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"has_market_probs": true,
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"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
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"market_narrative": {},
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"status": "warning"
},
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"outcome_separation": {
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 43.2,
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"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
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"side": "home"
},
{
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
},
{
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],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
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"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
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"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Waterford (42.9%).",
"Model and market lean the same side on Waterford, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
],
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"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
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"context": "match",
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{
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{
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"id": "market_detected",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
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]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "14/14",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Waterford",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Waterford",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
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"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 3842,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3842.webp",
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"country_code": "IE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492715,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_id": 3845,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3845.webp",
"home_team_name": "Waterford",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Premier Division",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Waterford",
"venue_name": "Regional Sports Centre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"away": {
"alpha": 0.2347,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1827,
"implied_prob": 0.2977,
"model_prob": 0.1525,
"p_final": 0.2636
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2704,
"best_odd": 3.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.273,
"model_prob": 0.2072,
"p_final": 0.2552
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3076,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0649,
"ev": 0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.6403,
"p_final": 0.4942
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"edge_no": -0.0516,
"edge_yes": 0.0516,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.142,
"ev_yes": 0.037,
"implied_no": 0.4416,
"implied_yes": 0.5584,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": 0.1516,
"edge_under": -0.1516,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2616,
"ev_under": -0.3246,
"implied_over": 0.5124,
"implied_under": 0.4876,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.42,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2616,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.61,
"draw_prob": 0.2072,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6403,
"over_prob": 0.664,
"total_xg": 3.42,
"under_prob": 0.336,
"xg_diff": 1.24
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0649,
"ev": 0.0624,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6403,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Waterford"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0516,
"ev": 0.037,
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"model_prob": 0.61,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1516,
"ev": 0.2616,
"implied_prob": 0.5124,
"model_prob": 0.664,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492715,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2616,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1525,
"draw": 0.2072,
"home": 0.6403
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sligo Rovers",
"home": "Waterford"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.173702,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2616,
"implied_prob": 0.5124,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.664,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492715,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T01:04:56.348916+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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