The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Inter Miami at 49.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Inter Miami Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 2-0 2-2 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.49) — 4 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 20:06 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Inter Miami 2.03 — Nashville SC 1.46
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Inter Miami 2–2 Nashville SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": 0.025,
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"pick_type": "winner",
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"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Inter Miami"
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
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}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
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"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 67.9,
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.6
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
"label": "Inter Miami or Draw",
"prob": 73.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Inter Miami or Nashville SC",
"prob": 76.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Nashville SC",
"prob": 50.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Inter Miami or Nashville SC",
"pick_prob": 76.2
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Inter Miami"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.49,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "high",
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"over_prob": 67.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 67.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.49,
"under_prob": 32.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 7.0,
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"label": "Home",
"market": "Inter Miami Win",
"model_prob": 49.8,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.1,
"ev": -0.103,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 9.75,
"market_prob": 0.1026,
"market_prob_pct": 10.3,
"model_prob": 0.092,
"model_prob_pct": 9.2,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
"top5": [
{
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"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.6
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.03,
"homepage_pick": null,
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"edge": 0.0004,
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"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.3204,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.1,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0739,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.076,
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"model_prob": 0.679,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0433,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.3,
"text": "+4.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0766,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.7,
"text": "-7.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 32.1,
"sort_key": 10038.97,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"edge": 0.003,
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.5963,
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"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0732,
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},
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0522,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0013,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0013,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 67.7,
"sort_key": 5201.04,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 32.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0247,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0247,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Inter Miami",
"sort_key": 1793.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"alert_team": "Nashville SC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Inter Miami",
"model_prob_pct": 49.7,
"model_team": "Inter Miami",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0433,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0687,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter Miami at 49.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter Miami as the value side (49.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Miami",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.57"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.57
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.03,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.03,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.03 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +50%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"steam_team": "Nashville SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0433,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0687,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter Miami at 49.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter Miami as the value side (49.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Miami",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.57"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.57
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Miami 2.03 xG vs Nashville SC 1.46 \u2192 Inter Miami 49.7%",
"Market Steam: Nashville SC \u2193 -11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Inter Miami, but sharp money moved toward Nashville SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.67,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 23.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.52,
"label": "Nashville SC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.12,
"fair_prob": 67.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.12,
"fair_prob": 32.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.77,
"fair_prob": 67.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob": 32.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Inter Miami",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 49.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Miami 2.03 xG vs Nashville SC 1.46 \u2192 Inter Miami 49.7%",
"Market Steam: Nashville SC \u2193 -11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Inter Miami, but sharp money moved toward Nashville SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Nashville SC odds shortened \u2193 -11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 23.2 pp (at 49.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 23.2,
"max_prob_pct": 49.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.52,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nashville SC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Inter Miami (49.7%).",
"However, Nashville SC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -11.4%, 8/12).",
"The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.26,
"entry_odds": 3.1,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Nashville SC (11.4%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.30",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 2.86 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h",
"pick_team": "Nashville SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Nashville SC \u2193 -11.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Nashville SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Nashville SC \u2193 -11.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Nashville SC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Nashville SC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/12",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Nashville SC",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Nashville SC",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nashville-sc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nashville SC",
"away_team_id": 9569,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9569.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nashville SC",
"away_team_public_id": "5QcfWavCKlUXFs",
"away_team_slug": "nashville-sc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490466,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Inter Miami",
"home_team_id": 9568,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9568.webp",
"home_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"home_team_public_id": "0DUhhZicSUHRl8",
"home_team_slug": "inter-miami",
"ht.home_team_slug": "inter-miami",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 23:30:00",
"public_id": "1NjwtTHIOICo9b",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Fort Lauderdale",
"venue_name": "Nu Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2824,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.3042,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3042,
"draw": 0.2358,
"home": 0.46
},
"model_prob": 0.265,
"p_final": 0.2931
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.2358,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3042,
"draw": 0.2358,
"home": 0.46
},
"model_prob": 0.2379,
"p_final": 0.2362
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.425,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3042,
"draw": 0.2358,
"home": 0.46
},
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"p_final": 0.4758
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0062,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.265
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.2,
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.2381,
"model_prob": 0.2379
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.4971
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4403,
"alpha_yes": 0.6055,
"best_no_odd": 3.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0077,
"edge_yes": -0.0077,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0433,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0739,
"ev_yes": -0.0766,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.076,
"implied_no": 0.3133,
"implied_yes": 0.6867,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4403,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"model_prob": 0.321,
"p_final": 0.3204
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.6055,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.68,
"model_prob": 0.679,
"p_final": 0.6794
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.3204,
"p_final_yes": 0.6794,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5963,
"alpha_under": 0.271,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.0,
"edge_over": -0.0112,
"edge_under": 0.0112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0522,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0732,
"ev_under": 0.0013,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0552,
"implied_over": 0.6882,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6881,
"implied_under": 0.3118,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3119,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5963,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.6881,
"model_prob": 0.677,
"p_final": 0.6815
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.271,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"model_prob": 0.323,
"p_final": 0.3149
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6815,
"p_final_under": 0.3149,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.49,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0433,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0687,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0433,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0433,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0687,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter Miami at 49.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter Miami as the value side (49.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Miami",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.3% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.3% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Nashville SC, but the model still strongly favours Inter Miami.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.57"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.57
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.679,
"draw_prob": 0.2379,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4971,
"over_prob": 0.677,
"total_xg": 3.49,
"under_prob": 0.323,
"xg_diff": 0.57
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0433,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.321,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0433,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.321,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "no",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Inter Miami"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4403,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0004,
"market_prob": 0.32,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.321,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4403,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"model_prob": 0.321,
"p_final": 0.3204
},
"p_final": 0.3204,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0739,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.6055,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.68,
"model_prob": 0.679,
"p_final": 0.6794
}
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": 0.0433,
"implied_prob": 0.3133,
"model_prob": 0.321,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.271,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"edge": 0.003,
"market_prob": 0.3119,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.323,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5963,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.6881,
"model_prob": 0.677,
"p_final": 0.6815
},
"p_final": 0.3149,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0552,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.271,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0552,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"model_prob": 0.323,
"p_final": 0.3149
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": 0.0013,
"implied_prob": 0.3118,
"model_prob": 0.323,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490466,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0433,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.265,
"draw": 0.2379,
"home": 0.4971
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nashville SC",
"home": "Inter Miami"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.46,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0191,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490466,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T20:06:49.390597+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Major League Soccer — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | San Diego | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 29 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 56 | 23 | +33 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 26 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 44 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 31 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 41 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 36 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 44 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 49 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 26 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 31 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 42 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 26 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 26 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 30 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 32 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 29 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 18 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 33 |
