AI correctly predicted the St. Louis City win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
B-
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 St. Louis City St. Louis City ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 19.3% | 25.1% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.3% | 22.4% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| St. Louis City | 55.4% | 52.5% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates New York Red Bulls's win probability at 25.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 19.3%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (St. Louis City win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on New York Red Bulls. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.89) — 3 goals materialised
- St. Louis City attacking xG significantly stronger (1.86 vs 1.03)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced St. Louis City higher (61.3% vs model 55.4%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (St. Louis City win 0–3).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · New York Red Bulls 19.3% · Draw 25.3% · St. Louis City 55.5%
- xG · New York Red Bulls 1.03 — St. Louis City 1.86
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · New York Red Bulls 3.84 · Draw 4.32 · St. Louis City 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · New York Red Bulls 25.1% · Draw 22.4% · St. Louis City 52.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · New York Red Bulls 3.84 · Draw 4.32 · St. Louis City 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · New York Red Bulls 25.1% · Draw 22.4% · St. Louis City 52.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result St. Louis City win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.84
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
St. Louis City win · New York Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis City
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
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}
],
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},
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"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 9.0/10 (display only)",
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},
{
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"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
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"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
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"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St. Louis City).",
"Decision strength: 9.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5546,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.83"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.83
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 96,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.86,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.86,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.86,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 38.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.03,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.86,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.03 \u00b7 Away xG 1.86 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +38%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"steam_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St. Louis City).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St. Louis City)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St. Louis City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2902,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2902,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 9.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. Louis City at 55.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. Louis City as the value side (55.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. Louis City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 9.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 9.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St. Louis City).",
"Decision strength: 9.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5546,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.83"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.83
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: New York Red Bulls 1.03 xG vs St. Louis City 1.86 \u2192 St. Louis City 55.4%",
"Market: St. Louis City ~52.5% implied",
"Market Drift: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +21.5%"
],
"one_liner": "St. Louis City projects stronger on expected goals (+0.83 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.86,
"fair_prob": 19.29,
"label": "New York Red Bulls",
"market_prob": 25.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.94,
"fair_prob": 25.3,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.92,
"fair_prob": 55.41,
"label": "St. Louis City",
"market_prob": 52.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.55,
"fair_prob": 55.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.55,
"fair_prob": 44.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.11,
"fair_prob": 55.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.11,
"fair_prob": 44.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.29,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"market_prob_pct": 25.15,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates New York Red Bulls\u0027s win probability at 25.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 19.3%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.86,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "St. Louis City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.9,
"model_prob_pct": 55.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "St. Louis City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: New York Red Bulls 1.03 xG vs St. Louis City 1.86 \u2192 St. Louis City 55.4%",
"Market: St. Louis City ~52.5% implied",
"Market Drift: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +21.5%"
],
"one_liner": "St. Louis City projects stronger on expected goals (+0.83 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.86,
"hero_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "New York Red Bulls odds lengthened \u2191 +21.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on New York Red Bulls. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on New York Red Bulls.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on New York Red Bulls. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on New York Red Bulls."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices New York Red Bulls above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on New York Red Bulls (\u2191 +21.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on New York Red Bulls."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.86,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 30.1 pp (at 55.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 30.1,
"max_prob_pct": 55.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices New York Red Bulls higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.86,
"edge_pp": -5.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.29,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "New York Red Bulls",
"market_prob_pct": 25.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.94,
"edge_pp": 2.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.3,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.36,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.92,
"edge_pp": 2.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.41,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "St. Louis City",
"market_prob_pct": 52.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on New York Red Bulls.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers St. Louis City (52.5%).",
"However, New York Red Bulls has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.5%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"St. Louis City \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.04,
"closing_odds": 3.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.04,
"entry_odds": 3.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 229h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened New York Red Bulls together (21.5% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.84",
"3.36",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.65 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 229h 17m",
"pick_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
3.84,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.84"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +21.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +21.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "New York Red Bulls",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "st-louis-city",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "St. Louis City",
"away_team_id": 20787,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20787.webp",
"away_team_name": "St. Louis City",
"away_team_public_id": "1y1FKiRCvlHajn",
"away_team_slug": "st-louis-city",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490500,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"home_team_id": 1602,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1602.webp",
"home_team_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"home_team_public_id": "0t7Y5nA7jXCn5w",
"home_team_slug": "new-york-red-bulls",
"ht.home_team_slug": "new-york-red-bulls",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-30 23:30:00",
"public_id": "0o15hQLFWzksny",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Harrison",
"venue_name": "Sports Illustrated Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5733,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0029,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5249,
"draw": 0.2236,
"home": 0.2515
},
"model_prob": 0.5546,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1913,
"best_odd": 4.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0101,
"implied_prob": 0.2236,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5249,
"draw": 0.2236,
"home": 0.2515
},
"model_prob": 0.2527,
"p_final": 0.2291
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2735,
"best_odd": 3.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.2515,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5249,
"draw": 0.2236,
"home": 0.2515
},
"model_prob": 0.1927,
"p_final": 0.2354
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": 0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.5435,
"model_prob": 0.5546
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.32,
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": 0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.2315,
"model_prob": 0.2527
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.84,
"edge": -0.0677,
"ev": -0.26,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"model_prob": 0.1927
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3644,
"alpha_yes": 0.501,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0911,
"edge_yes": -0.0911,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1961,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0136,
"ev_yes": -0.1923,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1345,
"implied_no": 0.3519,
"implied_yes": 0.6481,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0322,
"ev": 0.0136,
"implied_prob": 0.3547,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.3869
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.501,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0442,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6453,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.6011
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3869,
"p_final_yes": 0.6011,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4816,
"alpha_under": 0.3503,
"best_over_odd": 1.47,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.75,
"edge_over": -0.1055,
"edge_under": 0.1055,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1886,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1469,
"ev_under": 0.2902,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0343,
"implied_over": 0.6575,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6627,
"implied_under": 0.3425,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3373,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4816,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0533,
"ev": -0.1469,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.6094
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3503,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.3761
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6094,
"p_final_under": 0.3761,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.89,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2902,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2902,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2902,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 9.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 9.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St. Louis City)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2902,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2902,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 9.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St. Louis City at 55.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St. Louis City as the value side (55.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St. Louis City",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 9.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 9.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St. Louis City).",
"Decision strength: 9.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5546,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.83"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.83
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.557,
"draw_prob": 0.2527,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5546,
"over_prob": 0.552,
"total_xg": 2.89,
"under_prob": 0.448,
"xg_diff": 0.83
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0029,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5546,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "St. Louis City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0322,
"market_prob": 0.3547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.443,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3644,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0322,
"ev": 0.0136,
"implied_prob": 0.3547,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.3869
},
"p_final": 0.3869,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0136,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.501,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0442,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6453,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.6011
}
},
"edge": 0.0911,
"ev": 0.1961,
"implied_prob": 0.3519,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3503,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0388,
"market_prob": 0.3373,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4816,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0533,
"ev": -0.1469,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.6094
},
"p_final": 0.3761,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3503,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.3761
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1055,
"ev": 0.2902,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490500,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2902,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5546,
"draw": 0.2527,
"home": 0.1927
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1961,
"implied_prob": 0.3519,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.443,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1961,
"implied_prob": 0.3519,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.443,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "St. Louis City",
"home": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.123509,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2902,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0029,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5546,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0205,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490500,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T23:29:07.323986+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Major League Soccer — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 45 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 44 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 5 | San Diego | 27 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 27 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 27 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
| 13 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 27 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 27 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 32 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 45 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 27 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 47 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 27 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 31 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 35 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 32 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 21 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 36 |
