AI correctly predicted the DC United win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 DC United DC United ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United | 58.5% | 44.2% | +14.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.3% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Toronto FC | 17.7% | 29.5% | -11.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates DC United's win probability at 58.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 44.2%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (DC United win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on DC United.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.05) — 3 goals materialised
- DC United attacking xG significantly stronger (2.01 vs 1.04)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced DC United more conservatively (44.1% vs model 58.5%, 14.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (DC United win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:47 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · DC United 58.5% · Draw 23.8% · Toronto FC 17.7%
- xG · DC United 2.01 — Toronto FC 1.04
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · DC United 2.19 · Draw 3.68 · Toronto FC 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · DC United 44.2% · Draw 26.3% · Toronto FC 29.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · DC United 2.19 · Draw 3.68 · Toronto FC 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · DC United 44.2% · Draw 26.3% · Toronto FC 29.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result DC United win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
28/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.19
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
DC United win · DC United 2–1 Toronto FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d347bab3bc834c8e9da70a93ce6b5113aadc7bb714247cfb40bb70d9f4c67cc9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.04,
"away_win_prob": 0.177,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.427,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.573,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2376,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.65,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.21,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.71,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.01,
"home_win_prob": 0.5855,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.588,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.412
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : DC United or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : DC United",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "DC United"
},
"away_xg": 1.04,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "DC United",
"confidence": 58.5,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : DC United",
"edge": 0.1433,
"edge_gap": 0.3475,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4419,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.7,
"draw": 23.8,
"home": 58.5
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "DC United"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.19
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.19,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "DC United Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.26,
"market_odds": 2.19,
"model_odds": 1.71,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 12.8,
"value_pct": 28.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 64.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 86.6,
"no_prob": 42.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 57.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 57.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.04,
"home_expected": 2.01,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "DC United or Draw",
"prob": 82.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "DC United or Toronto FC",
"prob": 76.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Toronto FC",
"prob": 41.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "DC United or Draw",
"pick_prob": 82.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.7,
"draw_pct": 23.8,
"home_pct": 58.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "DC United"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.05,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 58.8,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.05,
"under_prob": 41.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 28.3,
"implied_prob": 45.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "DC United Win",
"model_prob": 58.6,
"odds": 2.19
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Toronto FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.51,
"draw": 26.3,
"home": 44.19
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-25 23:29:33",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-25 23:02:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "DC United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.19,
"gap_pp": 14.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 58.52
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.3,
"gap_pp": -2.53,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.51,
"gap_pp": -11.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 17.71
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.21,
"gap_pp": 5.59,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 58.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.79,
"gap_pp": -5.59,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 41.2
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.19,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.68,
"early": 3.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.28,
"early": 3.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.51,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.82,
"early": 1.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.21,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.07,
"early": 2.07,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.79,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
}
},
"home_xg": 2.01,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Dafabet",
"best_odds": 2.21,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home DC United",
"edge": 13.3,
"ev": 29.2,
"probability": 58.5
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0787,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.9,
"text": "+7.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0787,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.9,
"text": "+7.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "DC United",
"sort_key": 10220.83,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 58.8,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 41.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 42.7,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 57.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"alert_team": "Toronto FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.36,
"hero_label": "DC United",
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"market_team": "DC United",
"model_prob_pct": 58.5,
"model_team": "DC United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2816,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees DC United at 58.5% vs market 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies DC United as the stronger side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "DC United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side DC United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490353 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9166666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.36,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.36,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.04,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 2.01,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.01,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 2.01 \u00b7 Away xG 1.04 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +49%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"steam_team": "Toronto FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2816,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees DC United at 58.5% vs market 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies DC United as the stronger side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "DC United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side DC United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490353 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: DC United 2.01 xG vs Toronto FC 1.04 \u2192 DC United 58.5%",
"Market: DC United ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Toronto FC \u2193 -14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours DC United, but sharp money moved toward Toronto FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.36,
"fair_prob": 58.55,
"label": "DC United",
"market_prob": 44.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.54,
"fair_prob": 23.76,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.81,
"fair_prob": 17.7,
"label": "Toronto FC",
"market_prob": 29.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 58.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 57.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 42.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.55,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "DC United",
"market_prob_pct": 44.19,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Toronto FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates DC United\u0027s win probability at 58.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 44.2%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "DC United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.3,
"model_prob_pct": 58.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: DC United 2.01 xG vs Toronto FC 1.04 \u2192 DC United 58.5%",
"Market: DC United ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Toronto FC \u2193 -14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours DC United, but sharp money moved toward Toronto FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.36,
"hero_label": "DC United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Toronto FC odds shortened \u2193 -14.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Toronto FC, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on DC United.",
"note": "Buying interest on Toronto FC \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on DC United.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Toronto FC, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"Buying interest on Toronto FC \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors DC United more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Toronto FC has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.5%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/12) supports the current market view on Toronto FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 34.8 pp (at 58.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 34.8,
"max_prob_pct": 58.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "DC United",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.4,
"lead": "The model rates DC United considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.36,
"edge_pp": 14.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.55,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "DC United",
"market_prob_pct": 44.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.54,
"edge_pp": -2.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.76,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.81,
"edge_pp": -11.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Toronto FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.51,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Toronto FC \u2014 odds shortened by 14.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers DC United (44.2%).",
"However, Toronto FC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.5%, 11/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 DC United, Market \u2192 DC United, Recent sharp money \u2192 Toronto FC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.66,
"closing_odds": 2.19,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.66,
"entry_odds": 2.19,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 131h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Toronto FC (14.5%, 11/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.80",
"3.52",
"3.25"
],
"display": "3.95 \u2192 3.09 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 131h 46m",
"pick_team": "Toronto FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.95"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.09"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.28,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,17.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Toronto FC \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Toronto FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Toronto FC \u2193 -14.5% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Market moved toward Toronto FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Toronto FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Toronto FC",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "Toronto FC",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Toronto FC",
"away_team_id": 1601,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1601.webp",
"away_team_name": "Toronto FC",
"away_team_slug": "toronto-fc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490353,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "DC United",
"home_team_id": 1615,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1615.webp",
"home_team_name": "DC United",
"home_team_slug": "dc-united",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-25 23:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Washington",
"venue_name": "Audi Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2469,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1277,
"implied_prob": 0.2951,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2951,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.4419
},
"model_prob": 0.1771,
"p_final": 0.2659
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2886,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2951,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.4419
},
"model_prob": 0.2377,
"p_final": 0.2557
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3533,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0506,
"ev": 0.0787,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2951,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.4419
},
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"p_final": 0.4925
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.1278,
"ev": -0.4191,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.1771
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2377
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.1286,
"ev": 0.2816,
"implied_prob": 0.4566,
"model_prob": 0.5852
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.05,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2816,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0787,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2816,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees DC United at 58.5% vs market 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies DC United as the stronger side (58.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "DC United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side DC United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.19 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490353 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.19 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Toronto FC, but the model still strongly favours DC United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.573,
"draw_prob": 0.2377,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5852,
"over_prob": 0.588,
"total_xg": 3.05,
"under_prob": 0.412,
"xg_diff": 0.97
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0506,
"ev": 0.0787,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "DC United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.573,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1490353,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0787,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1771,
"draw": 0.2377,
"home": 0.5852
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Toronto FC",
"home": "DC United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.055266,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0787,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "DC United",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0787,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5852,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4566210045662101,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2816,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+28.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490353,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-25T23:47:26.392272+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para DC United & Toronto FC!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Major League Soccer — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | San Diego | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 29 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 56 | 23 | +33 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 26 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 44 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 31 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 41 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 36 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 44 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 49 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 26 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 31 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 42 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 26 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 26 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 30 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 32 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 29 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 18 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 33 |
