Predicciones / Fútbol / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin

Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
1.62
1.33
43% 27% 30%
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
Mejor +EV (mercados seguidos)
Menos de 2.5 — Valor
vehículo eléctrico 4.4% Modelo 43.5%
No es un resultado dominante (la probabilidad del modelo es inferior al 50% en este tramo).
El +EV más fuerte entre los mercados seguidos aquí; no se cumplieron reglas de Primaria más estrictas (p. ej. EV mínimo).
1X2 Poco valor
Jagiellonia · Modelo 42.8%
implícita 50.4%
vehículo eléctrico: -14.7%
Mejor EV (1X2) -2.5%
Ambos Equipos Marcarán Poco valor
Sí 60.5% · No 39.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -8.04% · EV No -3.22%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Perspectivas de marcador exacto Fuera / diversión
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 11.3%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Ejecución: sin Primaria / alternativa a tamaño estándar — otros mercados pueden mostrar +EV en las tarjetas de abajo.
Mercado: puede haber una pequeña ineficiencia modelo–precio en líneas marginales o de alta varianza — no es apuesta por defecto; reduzca la apuesta si prueba. (Técnico: al menos una línea seguida supera el umbral +EV a ≥2.0% en las mejores cuotas — no implica apuesta por defecto.)
Fuerza de la decisión: 4.0 / 10
  • Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5: EV terminado -11.29% · EV inferior 4.4% (5 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -8.04% · EV No -3.22%
Should you bet on this match? Solo lectura discrecional: el +EV puede aparecer en líneas finas o outsiders; compárelas con sus límites.
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.0.0(EV + Estructura de Mercado + Ajuste de Riesgo) Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON 
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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_win_prob": 0.3,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2719,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.33,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.68,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.34,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.62,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4281,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
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      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Jagiellonia"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.33,
    "betting_insight": {
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      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
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        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0737,
        "edge_gap": 0.1271,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5013,
        "model_prob": 0.4276,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
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          "draw": 27.2,
          "home": 42.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
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          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 1.91
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        {
          "affi_link": null,
          "bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
          "odd": 1.89
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
          "odd": 1.85
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          "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
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          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
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      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
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        "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
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        "label": "Home",
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        "market_odds": 1.86,
        "model_odds": 2.34,
        "overround": 7.1,
        "prob_edge": -9.6,
        "value_pct": -18.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 30,
        "away_score_rate": 73.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 30,
        "home_score_rate": 80.2,
        "no_prob": 39.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 60.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 60.5
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        "home_expected": 1.62,
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            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
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            "away": 0,
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            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.5
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            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
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        ],
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      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Jagiellonia or Draw",
            "prob": 70.0
          },
          {
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            "label": "Jagiellonia or Pogon Szczecin",
            "prob": 72.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 57.2
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        "draw_pct": 27.2,
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        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Jagiellonia"
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        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
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        "under_prob": 43.5
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        "edge": 11.0,
        "implied_prob": 27.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
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        "odds": 3.7
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.3
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    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1129,
        "ev_under": 0.044,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.044,
        "over_prob": 56.5,
        "sort_key": 10039.6,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 43.5,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
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        "ev": -0.1451,
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5016,
        "max_ev": -0.0249,
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        "sort_key": 813.9,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.3
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      "away_team_id": 348,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/images/team/348.png",
      "away_team_name": "Pogon Szczecin",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
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      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 336,
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      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/images/league/106.png",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
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        ],
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
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      },
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          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 3.65,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0129,
            "ev": -0.0249,
            "implied_prob": 0.2542,
            "model_prob": 0.3005,
            "p_final": 0.2671
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2875,
            "best_odd": 3.8,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.008,
            "ev": -0.0418,
            "implied_prob": 0.2442,
            "model_prob": 0.2719,
            "p_final": 0.2522
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          "ev_available": true,
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.52,
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          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_over": -0.0413,
          "edge_under": 0.0413,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1129,
          "ev_under": 0.044,
          "implied_over": 0.6063,
          "implied_under": 0.3937,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.95,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
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        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
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          "draw_prob": 0.2719,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4276,
          "over_prob": 0.565,
          "total_xg": 2.95,
          "under_prob": 0.435,
          "xg_diff": 0.29
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.044,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.3937,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.435,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": -0.0395,
          "ev": -0.1451,
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          "model_prob": 0.4276,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Jagiellonia"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "edge": 0.0114,
          "ev": -0.0322,
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          "model_prob": 0.395,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
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          "edge": 0.0413,
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          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1380665,
      "match_regime": {
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        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.044,
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        "use_split_strip": true
      },
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      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3005,
        "draw": 0.2719,
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      },
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Pogon Szczecin",
        "home": "Jagiellonia"
      },
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      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
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  "fixture_id": 1380665,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-03T03:50:25.639710+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 Lech Poznan 31 15 10 6 55
2 Gornik Zabrze 30 14 7 9 49
3 Jagiellonia 30 12 10 8 46
4 Raków Częstochowa 30 13 7 10 46
5 Wisla Plock 30 12 9 9 45
6 Zaglebie Lubin 30 12 8 10 44
7 GKS Katowice 30 13 5 12 44
8 Radomiak Radom 30 10 10 10 40
9 Piast Gliwice 31 11 7 13 40
10 Legia Warszawa 31 9 13 9 40
11 Korona Kielce 31 10 9 12 39
12 Motor Lublin 31 9 12 10 39
13 Lechia Gdansk 30 12 7 11 38
14 Cracovia Krakow 30 9 11 10 38
15 Pogon Szczecin 30 11 5 14 38
16 Widzew Łódź 31 10 6 15 36
17 Arka Gdynia 30 9 7 14 34
18 Nieciecza 30 7 7 16 28
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lechia Gdansk 30 57 54 +3 38
2 Lech Poznan 31 56 41 +15 55
3 Jagiellonia 30 48 37 +11 46
4 Radomiak Radom 30 46 43 +3 40
5 Gornik Zabrze 30 43 34 +9 49
6 Zaglebie Lubin 30 43 36 +7 44
7 Raków Częstochowa 30 43 37 +6 46
8 GKS Katowice 30 43 41 +2 44
9 Piast Gliwice 31 40 41 -1 40
10 Pogon Szczecin 30 40 45 -5 38
11 Motor Lublin 31 39 46 -7 39
12 Korona Kielce 31 38 37 +1 39
13 Widzew Łódź 31 36 38 -2 36
14 Nieciecza 30 36 55 -19 28
15 Legia Warszawa 31 35 36 -1 40
16 Cracovia Krakow 30 35 38 -3 38
17 Wisla Plock 30 32 28 +4 45
18 Arka Gdynia 30 31 54 -23 34
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 31 54.9 32.7 +22.2 55
2 Raków Częstochowa 30 47.0 37.2 +9.8 46
3 Legia Warszawa 31 40.6 32.9 +7.7 40
4 Lechia Gdansk 30 43.8 39.4 +4.4 38
5 Pogon Szczecin 30 47.7 44.9 +2.8 38
6 Piast Gliwice 31 39.3 37.3 +2.0 40
7 Gornik Zabrze 30 38.1 36.1 +2.0 49
8 Widzew Łódź 31 35.5 33.7 +1.8 36
9 Radomiak Radom 30 40.1 38.6 +1.5 40
10 Cracovia Krakow 30 34.4 33.0 +1.4 38
11 Korona Kielce 31 46.3 46.5 -0.2 39
12 Wisla Plock 30 38.6 39.6 -1.0 45
13 GKS Katowice 30 37.3 41.0 -3.7 44
14 Jagiellonia 30 37.0 42.8 -5.8 46
15 Zaglebie Lubin 30 30.3 38.4 -8.1 44
16 Nieciecza 30 39.0 50.7 -11.7 28
17 Motor Lublin 31 35.5 47.4 -11.9 39
18 Arka Gdynia 30 32.1 45.2 -13.1 34
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