Pronostici / Coppa del Mondo 2026 / Inghilterra vs Croazia

Inghilterra vs Croazia

Group L
Inghilterra Inghilterra
Jun 17, 2026 - 20:00
4 1.50
2 1.20
Croazia Croazia

Betting Signal

Il modello dice
Inghilterra 42.6%
Stato
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The statistical model leans Inghilterra (42.6%).

The model and market both lean Inghilterra, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Croazia remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

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Previsione AI
Inghilterra 42.6%
Draw 28.6%
Croazia 28.7%

Generato da simulazione Poisson regolata con Elo. Non sono quote dei bookmaker.

Mostra Dati Completi del Modello
Probabilità della linea gol Poisson
Linea Over Under
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Aspettative della partita
Over 2.5 gol
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 gol
49.4%
Entrambe le squadre segnano
55.9%
Balanced
Probabile clean sheet
44.1%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 55.9% · No 44.1% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Punteggi più probabili
Punteggio Probabilità
1-1 13.7%
2-1 9.1%
1-0 8.5%
0-0 8.3%
2-0 7.6%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase della partita: Terminato

Ciclo Decisionale

Fase attuale: Chiusura non disponibile

  1. Previsione Generata
  2. Mercato Confrontato
    Ingresso In Attesa
  3. Validazione Superata
  4. Chiusura registrata
    Chiusura Non disponibile Nessuna istantanea completa di chiusura pre-partita
  5. CLV valutato
    CLV In Attesa Richiede la linea di chiusura dopo il tempo regolamentare
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