The model missed the final outcome (Tlaxcala win 3–1).
The model had projected Venados FC at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Venados FC Tlaxcala ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 34.7% | 47.1% | -12.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.7% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Venados FC | 35.6% | 27.2% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Tlaxcala's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Tlaxcala win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Tlaxcala than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Venados FC; match finished Tlaxcala
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Venados FC by 12.4 percentage points (48.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tlaxcala 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Venados FC 35.6%
- xG · Tlaxcala 1.29 — Venados FC 1.31
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tlaxcala 2.02 · Draw 3.70 · Venados FC 3.50
- Implied 1X2 · Tlaxcala 47.1% · Draw 25.7% · Venados FC 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tlaxcala 2.02 · Draw 3.70 · Venados FC 3.50
- Implied 1X2 · Tlaxcala 47.1% · Draw 25.7% · Venados FC 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tlaxcala win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monarcas | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CA La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Correcaminos Uat | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Tapatío | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorados | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 10 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Venados FC | 9 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Leones Negros UDG | 10 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 10 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 | Correcaminos Uat | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Cancún | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Dorados | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Tapatío | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Piratas | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 12 | CDS Tampico Madero | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Durango | 9 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 9 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 3 |
