1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Piratas
- Model probability
- 39.5%
- Market probability
- 71.9%
- Difference
- -32.4 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -22.7%
No Value Edge
Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction
Model leans Piratas, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet
5.1/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Conflict
Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.
Other factors
- Market Quality Risk
Consensus EV
+24.9%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
32.4 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
61/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 39.5% |
| Market (no-vig) | 71.9% |
| Difference | +32.4 pp |
The market has moved away from Alebrijes de Oaxaca, but the model still strongly favours Piratas.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+24.9%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Piratas
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Market moved against Alebrijes de Oaxaca6.5 → 8.0 · ↑ +23.1%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Alebrijes de Oaxaca · ↑ +23.1%
Breadth
1/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +23.1%
Move Score
52 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseSharp repricing
StatusSharp-led move
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
⚠ Market moved away from Alebrijes de Oaxaca while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Under 2.5
- Model probability (Under)
- 51.8%
- Market probability (Under)
- 44.4%
- Difference
- +7.4 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -7.0%
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 54.3%
- Market probability
- 43.4%
- Difference
- +10.9 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -4.0%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 54.3%
BTTS No 45.7%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 12.5%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 10.0%
- Difference
- +2.5 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- +25.0%
Positive Edge
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 12.5%
- 1-0 10.3%
- 0-1 9.0%
- 2-1 8.7%
- 1-2 7.6%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 8.0
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Piratas at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 71.9%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Piratas as the value side (39.5%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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