The model missed the final outcome (Vanuatu win 0–1).
The model had projected Fiji at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fiji Vanuatu ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiji | 35.6% | 50.6% | -14.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.6% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Vanuatu | 34.7% | 24.9% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Fiji's win probability at 50.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Vanuatu win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Fiji than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Fiji; match finished Vanuatu
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fiji by 14.9 percentage points (50.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fiji 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Vanuatu 34.7%
- xG · Fiji 1.31 — Vanuatu 1.29
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 06:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fiji 1.86 · Draw 3.83 · Vanuatu 3.78
- Implied 1X2 · Fiji 50.6% · Draw 24.6% · Vanuatu 24.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fiji 1.86 · Draw 3.83 · Vanuatu 3.78
- Implied 1X2 · Fiji 50.6% · Draw 24.6% · Vanuatu 24.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vanuatu win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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